Winter Storm in Michigan, March 3, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1115 PM EST SAT MAR 2 2002

CHALLENGING FCST THIS EVENING OVER THE WRN FA WITH THE BIG QUESTION
OF WHETHER LES WILL GET GOING.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE HEADING NE INTO THE CNTRL LAKES. NICE ARC
OF ENHANCED CLOUD STREAMING NE THRU WRN LAKES IN STRONG DIFFLUENCE
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 140KT JET ACROSS
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AT THE SFC...ILL-DEFINED SFC LOW HEADING INTO SE LWR
MI. BROAD AREA OF -SN EXTENDS ACROSS ERN WI INTO ERN HALF OF UPPER
MI. IN THE ABSENCE OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...VERY DRY AIR OVER
MN/ONTARIO/WRN LK SUPERIOR HAD TOTALLY SQUASHED LES OVER WRN LK THIS
AFTN/EVENING. EVEN HARD PRESSED TO GET LK EFFECT CLDS. OVER NCNTRL
FA...INFLUX OF DRIER AIR HAD DIMINISHED SHSN OVER BARAGA/WRN
MARQUETTE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SEVERAL HVY WIND PARALLEL
LES BANDS ARE STREAMING S INTO ERN MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES.
THESE BANDS ARE NOW BACKING W AGAIN AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY MORE
NERLY PER KMQT 88D VAD WIND PROFILE. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
JET IS OVERSPREADING FA AND IS ALSO LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN ECHO
COVERAGE OVER BARAGA AND WRN MARQUETTE COUNTIES AGAIN WITH MOST
NOTABLE INCREASE OVER THE SPINE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WRNGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM MENOMINEE TO BARAGA EWD TONIGHT. -SN
ON BACK EDGE OF SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NE INTO E HALF OF FA
DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL CERTAINLY BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE AS BEST MOISTURE PULLS OUT...UPPER DIFFLUENCE WEAKENS
AND 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS. BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 2-6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...GREATEST E. LK
ENHANCED SNOW WILL CONTINUE BARAGA EWD TO LUCE. INCREASING TRENDS ON
RADAR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL N/NNE FLOW TO 9KFT SHOULD LEAD TO PERIODS
OF HVY LES. 00Z RUC STILL SHOWS WINDS INCREASING A BIT MORE
OVERNIGHT WITH 950MB WINDS UP TO 35KTS. HVY LES AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL LEAD TO NEAR ZERO VSBY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ISHPEMING TO
MUNISING. EXPECT ANOTHER 4-9 OVERNIGHT...GREATEST IN HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES.

WILL KEEP ADVY FOR IRON/DICKINSON SINCE BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A HAZARD. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE OVER AND WILL GO WITH
JUST AN INCH OR SO ADDITIONAL.

WRN FA A TOUGH CALL DUE TO VERY DRY AIR OVER LK. WITH LK-850MB
DELTA-T 22C OR BETTER...ANY SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE/LIFT OR
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD LEAD TO VERY RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
MDT/HVY LES. EXAMINATION OF 00Z RUC/18Z ETA SHOWS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES DURING THE
NIGHT. EXPECT LK INDUCED THERMAL TROUGHING TO ALSO STRENGTHEN DURING
THE NIGHT AS 850MB CAA CONTINUES AND SFC TEMPS PLUMMET ACROSS NE
MN/ONTARIO. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LONGER NNE FETCH ACROSS WRN LK AND
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE TWD GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. DONT HAVE
STRONG CONFIDENCE IN OBTAINING WRNG CRITERIA...BUT POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR RAPID LES DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...ON LATEST IR IMAGERY...CI
SHIELD HAS THINNED ENOUGH TO REVEAL NEWLY DEVELOPED SWD MOVING LK
EFFECT CLOUDS...AND KDLH RADAR SHOWS SOME ECHOES JUST W OF KIWD. SO
LES APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NOW. WILL LEAVE WRNG UP THERE.

OVER THE KEWEENAW...CONVERGENCE IS WEAKER AND N WIND IS NOT THE MOST
FAVORABLE DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH 2-4 INCHES OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING WINDS WILL WHIP THE NEW SNOW AROUND AND ADVY IS STILL
JUSTIFIED. KP59 FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO 30KTS OR BETTER.

COORD WITH KGRB...THANKS.

.MQT...WINTER STORM WARNING TNGT THROUGH SUN MRNG MIZ004-005-009.
       WINTER STORM WRNG TNGT AND SUN MIZ002-006-007-014.
       WINTER STORM WRNG TNGT INTO SUN MRNG MIZ012-013.
       SN/BLSN ADVY TNGT AND SUN MIZ001-003.
       SN/BLSN ADVY TNGT MIZ010-011.
       GALE WARNING E 2/3 LK SUP.

ROLFSON