Hail in New Mexico, June 22, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
307 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2002

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. NOT SEEING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...SO LOWER POPS
IN THAT REGION DOWN TO ISOLATED. HAVE RAISED THE POPS A LITTLE FOR
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  IF ANY THING FORMS TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS IT WILL PROBABLY BECAUSE THE ACTIVITY DRIFTS OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.  AFTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END LATER
TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SKIES TO CLEAR.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...RDG IS FORECAST TO
BUILD NORTH OVER THE AREA.  NEW MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE HEAT
OF MOTHER NATURE/S OVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE NEAR TERM
TIME FRAME.  CAN/T RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY...BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE NOT MADE A MENTION
OF IT IN THE ZONES SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION.  THIS
WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO LOOK AT NEW MODEL RUNS.

FOR THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME...EXPECTING AN OMEGA BLOCK TO FORM OVER
THE WEST THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  WHAT THIS
SPELLS FOR NEW MEXICO IS STILL A BIG QUESTION...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH THIS FEATURE BUILDS.  IF IT BUILDS FAR ENOUGH NORTH...
COULD MEAN THAT NEW MEXICO COULD GET INTO A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
WHICH WOULD INCREASE DWPTS AND CHANCE OF PRECIP.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE AS THIS IS FAR IN THE EXTENDED.

ABQ UU 063/095 064/096 064 16200
SAF BU 054/092 055/093 055 16100
TCC BU 066/097 067/098 067 16100

.ABQ...NONE.

MARTIN