Rip Current in North Carolina, June 22, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
142 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2002

AVN SEEMS TO BE DOING A BETTER JOB WITH CURRENT WEATHER AND WILL
LEAN HEAVILY ON IT FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

SFC HIGH OVER VA AT NOON WILL MOVE SE AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT
RESULTING IN SE WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA. ANOTHER H5 VORT WILL AFFECT
OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AND THINK IT WOULD BE WISE TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS AGAIN. BEST POPS WILL BE S 1/2 OF CWA SCALING THEM BACK A
BIT ACROSS N PART OF OUR CWA.

.SUN...STILL SOME UVM OVER OUR REGION TOMORROW SO GOOD CHANCE
TO LOW LIKELY POPS. MAYBE A FEW MORE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW
AS WINDS WILL BECOME S WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

.SUN NIGHT...NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR PCPN AND WILL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. MINS WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH LIGHT S-SW WINDS AT THE SFC.

.MON...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT NW DOWNSLOPE SO EXPECT MORE
SUNSHINE MONDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PM TSTMS. SFC WINDS
WILL BE SW SO TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND
85-90 NEAR THE COAST.

TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE SINCE AVN IS MODEL OF CHOICE.

EXTENDED...H5 LOW BY MON NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND DRIFTS TO THE ARLATEX REGION BY 12Z WED THEN
BECOMES OPEN. WHILE THIS IS GOING ON OUR NECK OF THE WOODS AN
UPPER HIGH WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THEN WED-FRI
THERE WILL BE WEAK VORTS KICKED OUT OF THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING
S/W. THE S/W WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SOME
TIME FRI NIGHT OR SAT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PCPN MON NIGHT AND
LITTLE IF ANY TUE THEN A CHANCE EACH DAY WED-FRI. THEN DRY
AGAIN SAT PROVIDING FRONT MOVES THROUGH AS EXPECTED. NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S OUTER BANKS.

MARINE: OCEAN TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS...BUT VERY GRADUALLY.
LIKE NOAA WW3 THINKING BUT WILL PROBABLY DECREASE SIG SEA HGHTS A
LITTLE SLOWER FOR THE COASTAL WATERS S OF HATTERAS THAN WHAT THE
WAVE MODEL IS PAINTING. BOTTOM LINE IS TO HOLD ON TO SCA OVERNIGHT
HATTERAS SWD WITH THE IDEA OF DROPPING FLAGS SUNDAY AS SEA HGTS
SUBSIDE TO 4 AND 5 FEET. NO PROBLEMS IN THE NRN WATERS WITH LIGHTER
WIND FLOW IN VCNTY TO HIGH PRES N-NE OF THE OBX WHERE SEAS ARE
RUNNING 3 TO 4 FEET. REDUCED VSBY IN +RA WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST
THREAT IN THE COASTAL WATERS N OF HATTERAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AND PSBLY A FEW CLOUD TO WATER LTG STRIKES THROUGHOUT THE
COASTL WATERS TNGT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

ONSHORE FLOW AND RESIDUAL SE WAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IN NEARING FULL MOON WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
RIP CURRENT ALG THE BEACHES S OF HATTERAS SUNDAY. N OF HATTERAS
IT WILL BE MARGINAL BUT WE MAY HAVE TO KEEP IT GOING FOR THE DAY
AFTER FACTOR WHEN THE OFFSHORE WINDS GLASS UP THE OCEAN SFC BUT
UNDERNEATH LURKS THE SE WAVE POWER PUSHING WATER OVER THE SAND BARS.

.MHX...SCA COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE HATTERAS.

SHAFFER/COLBY