Hail in New Mexico, August 9, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 PM MDT FRI AUG 9 2002

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT STORMS ARE MOVING STEADILY
SOUTHEAST TO EAST. AT THE CURRENT RATE ACTIVITY OVER ZONES 2...3
AND 8 AND 9 MIGHT BE SOUTHEAST. THUS POPS COULD BE LOWERED AT THE
LAST MINUTE BEFORE THE ZONE ARE ISSUED.

WEATHER PATTERN TO UNDER GO A CHANGE AS THE WESTERLIES STRENGTHEN
AND DIP A BIT SOUTH. TWO STRONG UPPER TROUGHS TO PASS WELL NORTH OF
THE STATE OVER THE NEXT ONE TO FOUR DAYS PUSHING THEIR ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND GREAT BASINS PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH
AND EAST.

FIRST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...VERY DRY AIR AND MID LEVEL WARMING
INDICATED BY 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SOUNDINGS OVER NORTHERN AZ
AND GREAT BASIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE 4 CORNERS AND
PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
MID WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY GETS SHOVED SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS
INDICATE A DEFORMATION ZONE LIKE FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. DEEPEST MOISTURE...PWS 1+ INCH...AND HIGHEST THETA-E AIR
EXTENDS SOUTH AND EAST OF A KRTN-KLVS-SOCORRO TO STAFFORD AZ LINE.
WILL GO WITH SCATTERED POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE TONIGHT AND
THEN PUSH IT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST
ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH EXCEPTION TO THE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE NORTHWEST.

POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT COULD
PUSH SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW WESTWARD POSSIBLY MAINTAINING OR ENHANCING
CONVECTION. EAST WINDS INTO RIO GRANDE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING HOW FAR
WESTERN EXTENT OF MCS.

STATUS QUO ON THE EXTENDED AS AVN CONTINUES TO INDICATED NEXT COLD
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT BEST AS DEEPEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHOVED SOUTH AND
EAST BY THEN. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH MOISTURE SURGES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. WEST TO REMAIN ABNORMALLY DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE SW DESERTS-GREAT BASIN CUTTING OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT
MONSOON SURGE.

SOME COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE GREATER DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES SWINGS WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GB

ABQ BB 067/092 066/092 066 49101
SAF BB 056/088 054/088 055 49211
TCC BB 067/088 064/092 065 49332

.ABQ...NONE.