Wildfire in California, August 9 to 11, 2002

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
855 AM PDT FRI AUG 9 2002

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT AWAY FROM THE
COAST. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG NEAR THE COAST.

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG FORMED IN THE COASTAL AREAS TODAY AND MADE
IT AS FAR INLAND AS MIRAMAR (NKX). THERE WAS NO 12Z SOUNDING THIS
MORNING...BUT THE ESTIMATED MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS BTWN 600 AND 800
FEET...SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THICKNESSES INCREASED 30 TO 40
METERS OVER YESTERDAY AND TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE ALREADY 4
TO 8 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
VERY HOT AFTERNOON IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HEAT. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY IN
THE INLAND EMPIRE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SE FLOW
ALOFT BRINGING OCCASIONAL CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER NW
MEXICO. THEN THE RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING ON SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS AND MAY NOT HAVE MUCH OF A
COOLING EFFECT NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS ONLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES OVER WHAT WE
WILL EXPERIENCE THIS WEEKEND. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE ONCE ALL THE DATA BECOME AVAILABLE.

SAN...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR HEAT...SEE LAXSPSSGX.

MOEDE