Dust Devil in New Mexico, August 12, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
415 AM MDT MON AUG 12 2002

FRONTAL TIMING AND EFFECTS THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. APPEARS FRONT INTO NW KS AND ALMOST E CENTRAL
CO...MAYBE A BIT FASTER THAN GUIDANCE. SO IT MAY WELL ENTER NE NM
AS EARLY AS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
BEHIND FRONT AND VICINITY OF TRIPLE POINT EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR
FRONT. FALLISH UPPER PATTERN IN THE PICTURE AS WESTERLIES DROP
FARTHER S THAN NORMAL FOR THIS EARLY IN AUGUST. LOOKING AT E WIND
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT CAVEAT IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE GRADIENT
WIND THAN IS OPTIMAL IN IDEAL E WIND SCENARIO. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO LOOK AT WHETHER THIS MAY ACTUALLY MATERIALIZE OR NOT...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINDS MAY TURN MORE N THAN E
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE VALLEY. WHILE SURFACE WINDS LIKELY TO BE MOSTLY
NORTHWESTERLY NW AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND DOWN
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...STILL MAY NOT MIX DOWN WELL ENOUGH IN THE POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOME OTHER LOW
ELEVATION LOCALES ON TUESDAY TO SWITCH THEIR WINDS TO N OR NW. BUT
CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON WIND DIRECTION LATTER AREAS NOT TOO
HIGH...BUT MORE CONFIDENT THAT E WINDS WILL AGAIN PUSH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW POPS TUESDAY AND PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS BETWEEN DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...THOUGH NOT TOO KEEN ON ANY PRECIP VERY FAR E OF CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THESE AREAS. NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES IN LATER PERIODS. 43

ABQ AB 096/067 088/062 085 43001
SAF AB 093/053 082/053 080 43012
TCC BB 097/061 073/057 081 43-22

.ABQ...NONE.