Drought in New Jersey, September 1 to 30, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
830 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2002

DISC: DID A LITTLE CLEANING UP OF THE ZONES AND MARINE. WILL GO WITH
A PT/CLDY SKY OVRNGT. MID AND HI CLOUDS ARE STILL MAINTAINING
THEMSLEVES ACROSS THE FA. THERE WILL BE SOME MOMENTS OF MOSTLY CLR
SKIES...BUT THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. MID RANGE IR LOOP SHOWS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ARE STILL STREAMING N FM VA AND INTO PA/NJ. THESE
CLDS SHD HANG AROUND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

ON THE MARINE...DID A BIT OF TWEAKING WITH RESPECT TO THE WINDS AND
SEAS. TOOK OUT THE SMALL CRAFT FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND. WILL GO WITH
AROUND 20 KT. AND LOWERED THE SEAS A NOTCH. FOR THE HARBOR DID A
LITTLE WITH THE WAVES. AS THE HARBOR OPENS UP NEAR ITS MOUTH SOME
WINDS MAY GET INTO THE 25 KT RANGE. REST OF THE FCST IS OK AND DID
NOT TOUCH THE TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT.

THE NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE A VERY ROUGH TIME WITH THE NEW FCST. MODELS
ALL PAINT A DIFFERNET PICTURE.

...PREV AFD.....
THIS IS DEFINITELY A CHALLENGING FORECAST. SHORT RANGE FORECAST
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ACROSS EASTERN CT...AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE QUESTION OF THE HOUR IS HOW FAR WEST AND SOUTH WILL THIS DRYING
OCCUR. SHORT TERM FORECAST TRENDS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND BECOME SCATTERED EAST OF NYC BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z...WHERE ILL CARRY AN EVENING FORECAST PERIOD.

EAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND CLOUD
COVER FURTHER WEST...ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NY AND
NORTHWEST NJ. THE NGM ACTUALLY FORECASTS LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH
00Z THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS ACTUALLY FALLING RIGHT HERE AT
THE OFFICE AT 1:40 PM. I WILL INCLUDE SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS CLOUD
COVER FROM NYC WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...MINOR BEACH EROSION WAS
JUST REPORTED AROUND HIGH TIDE IN THE SMITH POINTS AREA OF FIRE
ISLAND. EVEN THOUGH THE WIND GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX A BIT
OVERNIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR BEACH EROSION MAY OCCUR AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...HERES WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING. THERE
IS COMPLETE DIVERGENCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FORECASTS THROUGH LABOR DAY.

THE NGM AND ETA MODELS MOVE THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY ADVECTING NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS...NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 60
HOURS/LABOR DAY. THIS WOULD KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WEST OF THE
REGION...LEAVING US WITH ONLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH LABOR DAY.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE AVN MDL DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND TRACKS THE LOW
RIGHT UP THE NJ COAST...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FROM
NYC EAST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

CONCERNING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...IM DEFINITELY
BUYING THE LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FROM NCEP. READ THE
LAST 2 PARAGRAPHS FOR DETAILS. THE WMO HEADER IS FXUS10 KWNH AND THE
AWIPS HEADER IS PMDHMD.

THE BOTTOM LINE...ILL BE GOING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKER
WAVES WITH LESS RAINFALL FURTHER EAST THAN SHOWN BY THE
AVN...RESULTING IN MAINLY SCATTERED POPS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF LABOR DAY.

CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-ANZ355-353-350-330-335-338.

GC