Damaging Wind in New Jersey, June 24, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ...ISSUED BY NWS WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE
320 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2002

UPDATED DSCN FOR TWO THINGS...SPOKE WITH SPC. THEY DO NOT PLAN TO
ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE PHL AREA. CELLS ARE PULSING UP AND DOWN...LACK
OF SHEAR MEANS THAT ORGANIZED CONVTN IS UNLIKELY. ALSO..PHI JUST
CALLED ME ABOUT HEAT ADVSRY..AREA HAS NOT BEEN REACHING CRITICAL
VALUES TDA..AND ALTHO VERY WARM A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT WL BE IN PLACE
FOR TMRW...SO AM DROPPING HEADLINE OF XSCV HEAT FOR TUE.

RMNDR OF 300 PM DSCN...

LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PD OF WX FOR NJ/ERN PA OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.
BNDRY LIES IN SVRL DIFFERENT LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA TNGT THRU TUE
NGT B4 CONTINUING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WED. PLAN IS TO CONTINUE W/
CHC OF TRW THROUGH TUE NGT. AS MENTIONED THIS MRNG TSTMS MAY BE
SVR...FEELING IS ONES THAT DO DVLP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME VERY
HVY RAIN PRODUCERS W/ PULSE SVR.

CHC OF CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EVNG..THEN OVRNGT WL BE VRY
WARM/HUMID W/ LOWS ONLY GETTING INTO L70S IN MANY LOCALES. HZ/FG WL
DVLP OVRNGT. ON TUE TEMPS WL AGN CLIMB INTO L90S W/ DWPTS IN L70S.
BUFKIT SHOWS A PD OF CAPES OVR 1000 TUE AFTN. WIND FIELD REMAINS
XTRMLY LGT - CELLS THAT DO DVLP COULD AGN BE VRY HEAVY RAINERS.

THINK WED COULD BE AN IN BETWEEN DAY AS WARM FNT MVS N OF
AREA..BUT UPR TROF/NEXT CD FNT WELL BACK OVR UPR MIDWEST. WEVE
MOVED INTO THE HEAT OF SUMMER...AND IN HEAT/HUMIDITY ISOLD CELLS
COULD FORM..BUT WOULD PREFER TO REFRAIN FM POPS ON WED. TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN INTO LM90S. SUSPECT WED MAY NEED HEAT ADVSRY AS WELL.

THU LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION...PSBLY BETTER ORGANIZED AS
NEXT FNT APRCHS PA. THEN HIGH BUILDS OVR AREA FOR THE WKND.

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

GIGILISI