High Wind in New Jersey, February 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1215 PM EST FEB 1 2002

HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE. WARM AIR IS NOT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ALTHOUGH TEMPS ON THE DELMARVA ARE SURGING INTO
THE 70S AS PREV ADVERTISED. MOST AREAS NORTH OF PHL WILL HAVE HARD
TIME MAKING IT INTO THE 60S BUT DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA
COULD BRING TEMPS IN SE PART OF THE STATE INTO THE UPPER 60S.

JJM

...PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

HAVE ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON THE DELMARVA BUT HAVE
PLACED A MENTION OF FOG INTO EARLY AFTN IN PORTIONS OF CWA NORTH OF
WARM FRONT. WINDS SOUTH OF WARM FRONT PICKING UP ALREADY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH BEING REPORTED.  TEMPS ON THE RISE THERE AS WELL WITH
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS LOOKING LIKELY ON THE DELMARVA AND IN SOUTHERN
NJ THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES. RECORD TEMPS STILL A POSSIBILITY
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE PHL METRO AREA BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH SUN BREAKS OUT THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTN AND WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT THE CWA. CAN/T RULE OUT A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM HERE OR THERE BUT DON/T THINK THEY WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FCST.

MARINE: SCA FOR ALL CSTL WATERS.

.PHI...
DE...WIND ADVY THIS AFTN AND EVE ALL ZONES.
MD...WIND ADVY THIS AFTN AND EVE ALL ZONES.
NJ...WIND ADVY THIS AFTN AND NIGHT ALL ZONES.
PA...WIND ADVY THIS AFTN AND EVE ALL ZONES.
MARINE...SCA FOR CSTL WATERS AND DE BAY.

JJM

....PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

TU FOR COORD ON TODAY/S EVENT LWX AND SPC. MANY POINTS TO PONDER
WITH THIS FCST PKG...MOST OF THEM IN THE FIRST PKG. MDLS ALL ARE
RAPIDLY MOVG A CDFNT THRU OUR CWA BY THIS EVE. EXTREMELY STG WINDS
ALF S/B TAPPED EITHER ALG THE FNTL INTERFACE AND/OR A NARROW LINE OF
SHRA PRECEDING THE CFP. AFT THAT IT MAY BE A SHOCK TO THE SYS...BUT
NML WINTER TEMPS WILL BE RETURNING FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH NO CHGS IN
THE SENSIBLE WX FCST THRU MON.

AS FOR TDY...THIS MRNG FIRST. WE SHLD HAVE STUCK TO OUR ORIGINAL
GUNS AND SLOWED THE WFP. ITS STILL S OF OUR CWA AND SHLD TAKE MUCH
OF THIS MRNG TO PASS THRU FROM S TO N. BASED ON CUR OBS WE ARE
PLANNING TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE DELMARVA ZONES AND MNTN
PATCHY DENSE FOG ELSW THIS MRNG. THERE ARE NO REPORTED PBLMS IN
SUSSEX AND MONROE CTYS. IT APRS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED AND
WE WILL LET THE WINTER WX ADVY EXPIRE.

THE MOST IMPORTANT QUES OF THE DAY IS HOW TO HANDLE THE PTNL FOR STG
WINDS LATER TDY. THE FCST MDLS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE STABLE. EVEN
THE ETA DOES NOT HAVE ANY S/B CAPES AND ITS LLVL LI/S DON/T GET TO
ZERO ANY LONGER. SO THE CHCS OF THUNDER APPEAR SMALLER. BUT
NEVERTHELESS WE HAVE SEEN LINE OF SHRAS THAT HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANIED
BY STG WINDS IN THE PAST. AFT GOING THRU OUR HIGH WIND CHECK LIST
AND LOOKING AT THE RULE OF THUMB RELATING TO FD WINDS...WE ARRIVED
AT PEAK WIND GUSTS OF ARND 45KT. SPC BELIEVES 50KT WOULD BE PBLY BE
AN ISOLATED HIGHEST PK GUST WITH THIS LINE. IN ADTN TEMP GUID IS A
BIT LWR AND WILL OBVIOUSLY TAKE LNGR FOR THE CLDS TO BRK AND WRMR
AIR TO MOVE IN. SO WE WILL OPT TO ISSUE A WIND ADVY WITH THIS
FCST PKG FOR THIS AFTN (THE SHRA LINE OR CFP) AND EVE (TIGHT GRAD
BHND THE FNT) THAT SHLD CVR MOST OF THIS EVENT. IF TEMPS BCM WRMR OR
SFC LO INTENSIFIES GREATER THAN EXPECTED DAYSHIFT MIGHT HAVE TO
REACCESS THIS DECISION.

FULL SUN MAXT PTNL TDY IS UPR 60S TO ARND 80. GIVEN THAT UPSIDE
PTNL...BLV AVN MOS GUID LOOKS BETTER IN SERN ZNS (MORE RECORDS?) BUT
PRFR COOLER NGM MOS TEMPS IN NW ZONES CLSR TO CFP TIME AND WITH A
LONGER TIME FOR COOL AIR TO BE MIXED OUT. HI TEMPS IN SOME OF OUR NW
ZONES MAY OCR JUST AFT CFP. AS FAR AS PCPN GOES WE LIKE THE CUR
BREAK OF LIKELY POPS NW TO CHC POPS SE AS THE FRMR LOCNS WILL BE
CLSR TO ENTR RGN OF H2.5 JET AND STGST FGEN FRCG. FGEN FRCG DOES
INCR ACRS OUR CWA DURG THE AFTN...SO CHC POPS LOOK GOOD TO THE CST.

RECORD HI TEMPS TDY
PHL 66 IN 1989
ILG 67 IN 1989
TTN 54 IN 1970
ACY 69 IN 1989
ACY SHORE...60
GED 69 IN 1967

ALL LOCNS SHLD BCM MOCLR BY END OF THE NGT AS MSTR AND CDFNT SWEEP
WELL OFSHR. ARCTIC AIR OVR MN LOOKS AS THO IT HAS TOO FAR TO GO OVR
NON SNOW COVERED AREAS TO ARRIVE AT AVN MOS MINS FOR TNGT. PRFR
SLGTLY WRMR NGM MOS.

THEN FAIR...BUT COLD WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE SHLD BE SOME CAA
SC ACRS NRN ZONES ON SAT...LESS DOWN S. FULL SUN MACROS SUGG THAT
THE COLDER NGM (FOR MOST PLACES) SHLD WORK BETTER FOR SAT/S MAX
TEMPS. AS HI PRES DRIFTS EWD SAT NGT AND GIVES US RDTNL COOLG
CONDS...WE WILL GO WITH THE COOLER OF THE TWO GUID FOR
SUBURBAN/RURAL ZONES. MORE SUNNY SKIES FOR OUR SRN CWA ON SUN. OUR
NRN ZONES WILL BE CLSR TO SOME CHLNZD PVA AS WELL AS WAA INDCD MSTR
IN RETURN FLOW FROM ALBERTA CLIPPER. WE/LL FSCT PTLY SUNNY SKIES UP
THERE. MAXT MACROS SUPPORT WRMR AVN MOS MAX TEMPS FOR SUN.

NO CHGS TO THE EXTDD. FOR MON ATTM 2NDRY OCEANIC CYCLOGENESIS FOR
APRS TO BE TOO FAR OFSHR TO AFFECT US AND PRIMARY ALBERTA LOW MOVES
N OF US. LATEST AVN/MRF BACK OFF ON THU/S WX ATTM...BUT LAST WINT WE
HAD NO SKILL ON MIDN SHIFTS CHANGING DAY 7 OF THE EXTDD. FCST COULD
STILL BE RIGHT FROM A DIF SYS AFFECTING US.

CLIMO: PRELIMINARY JAN MEAN TEMP FOR PHL 39.2 DEG...6.9 DEG ABV
NORMAL (EVEN WITH WRMR 1971-2000). THIS WAS THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE
MONTH THAT WAS WELL ABOVE NORMAL (DEFINED AS UPR 30% OF ALL MONTHS)
AND ONLY THE 3RD TIME THIS HAS EVER HAPPENED IN PHL. THE LAST TIME
WAS THE FALL/WINTER OF 1918-19 (ALSO A DRY FALL). THE TWO ENSUING
FEBRUARIES WERE THE COLDEST MONTH OF THOSE WINTERS...BUT THEN AGAIN
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DOWNSIDE PTNL.

MARINE: SCA FOR ALL CSTL WATERS.

.PHI...
DE...DENSE FOG ADVY THIS MRNG FOR DEZ002>004. WIND ADVY THIS
     AFTN AND EVE ALL ZONES.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVY THIS MRNG FOR MDZ012-015-019-020
     WIND ADVY THIS AFTN AND EVE ALL ZONES.
NJ...WIND ADVY THIS AFTN AND NIGHT ALL ZONES.
PA...WIND ADVY THIS AFTN AND EVE ALL ZONES.
MARINE...SCA FOR CSTL WATERS AND DE BAY.

TFG