Damaging Wind in Nevada, July 5, 2002

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 PM PDT FRI JUL 5 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF DRY
AND AND INCREASINGLY HOT WEATHER. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BRINING A MINOR THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...THE GREAT BASIN REMAINS IN SW FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL US AND THE WRN CAN/ERN PAC TROUGHS.
TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS OF ERN NV THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL INCLUDE
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM MENTION THIS EVENING. ETA/AVN SHOW WEAK
CONV/DIV COUPLET AND NEAR ZERO LIS IN CENTRAL AND NRN NV SAT
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE
TS MENTION TO ZONE 31 WHERE BEST LI/CAPE/MOISTURE AND A WEAK THETA-E
RIDGE ARE PROGGED TO RESIDE BY THE 12Z MESO ETA.

5H HTS INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE CENTRAL US RIDGE BUILDS AND
RETROGRADES WEST TO NRN UT WED. WILL CONTINUE THE INCREASING
TEMPERATURE TREND WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY UNDER 600
DM 5H HTS. PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS SAT AND SUNDAY WITH CU
DEVELOPMENT UNDER ZERO TO +1 LIS. SUNNY MONDAY WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE UPPER HIGH CENTER AND LIKELY CAPPING INVERSION. THE ERN PAC
UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE BC/PAC NW COAST SUNDAY WITH NW NV GETTING
BRUSHED BY A STRONGER 5H HT GRADIENT AS THE TROUGH PRESSES AGAINST
THE WRN US RIDGE. WITH 5H WINDS 30-40 KTS AND DEEP MIXING EXPECTED
WILL INCREASE WINDS TO BREEZY IN Z30 SUNDAY. 12Z AVN IS A BIT SLOWER
IN BRINGING MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NV AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH AN E-W RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NV
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP NRN ZONES SUNNY ON TUESDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ARRIVE THERE LATE.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER LATE NEXT WEEK AND THAT THE
REGION WILL BE UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR DAILY CONVECTION...
HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SO CLOSE WILL CONTINUE WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS WED AND THURS AND ADD FRIDAY.

.EKO...NONE.

HOENISCH