Dust Storm in Nevada, July 18, 2002

WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 PM PDT THU JUL 18 2002

VERY ACTIVE TSTMS OVER AREA THIS AFTN WITH MIXTURE OF SEVERE AND
FLASH FLOOD EVENTS. VORT MAX RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTIVITY MOVING SLOWLY
ENE ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING WITH SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM OVER ENTIRE CWA. ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABLITY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TSTMS FRIDAY
DESPITE VORT MAX MOVING EWD AS FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT. LIGHT
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER AREA ON SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL TSTMS
POPPING UP OVER MTNS IN EARLY AFTN AND VALLEYS BY LATE AFTN AND
EVENING. A LITTLE MORE DYNAMICS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER VORT MAX MOVES
TWD NRN CA CST AND THEN INLAND ON MONDAY. CYLKE

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MON THRU THUR...MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT.
ON MONDAY. THE MRF FEATURES A LOW OFF THE NRN CA COAST...PLACING THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEW AVN IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT INLAND OVER NRN CA.
THE NOGAPS AGREES WITH THE MOIST AVN SOLN AND THE ECMWF PUTS WRN NV/
E CA UNDER LIGHT S TO SE FLOW.  OVERALL WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE
SOLN ATTM.  WITH THE AVN SHOWING LI INDICES OF -3 TO -4 ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...FEEL THE NEED TO INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR ALL BUT THE SRN ZONES ON MONDAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL...DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.  WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF MONDAY WILL SLOW THE DRYING TREND A
BIT...MAKING TUESDAY A TRANSITION DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EAST.  THE 4 CORNERS
HIGH RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE CWA WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND A DRY AND
STABLE AIRMASS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FOR WED AND THUR. BROWN

.REV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NVZ001>005...CAZ070>073 UNTIL 8 PM.