Damaging Wind in Nevada, July 12, 2002

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
339 PM PDT FRI JUL 12 2002

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND THE MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MOISTURE MOVING AROUND
THE HIGH WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

.DISCUSSION...AGAIN THE MOST ACTIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE FORECAST AREA WAS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AS STORMS
DEVELOPED OVER THE YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND PUSHED TO THE WEST.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA AND THE STORMS WERE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED. THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SIERRA WERE DRIFTING TO THE WEST OF THE CREST WITH THE
STEERING FLOW. THE ACTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THEN BE
SOMEWHAT LESS SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR GETS PULLED IN FROM THE EAST.
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ALONG WITH
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA (NEAR 14N/115W). A CIRCULATION NEAR THE TIP
OF BAJA WAS HELPING THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO.
THIS COULD WORK INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATE SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY
MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS. A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALSO TURNS THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHERLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR INCREASED
MOISTURE AND AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COULD
PULL SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA.
THIS WOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.

THE MRF AND ECMWF WERE IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD MOVE INTO THE WEST AND POSSIBLY BEGIN DRYING
THE NORTHWEST ZONES. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN INDICATED LESS OF A
DRYING INFLUENCE WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING A LITTLE MORE STRONGLY. WILL
SHOW SLIGHT DRYING AFTER THE UPSWING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ADAIR

.LAS...NONE.