Damaging Wind in Arizona, July 12, 2002

Name: Damaging Wind in Arizona, July 12, 2002
Start: 2002-07-12T17:20
End: 2002-07-12T17:30
Location: Arizona

July 12, 2002 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A severe thunderstorm developed and moved over the town of Duncan. At 5:25 pm MST, spotters reported shingles being blown off roofs and roofs being blown off of two houses.

Where it happened

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $40,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

A severe thunderstorm developed and moved over the town of Duncan. At 5:25 pm MST, spotters reported shingles being blown off roofs and roofs being blown off of two houses.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 50 minutes before

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST FRI JUL 12 2002

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH WILL KEEP DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GUIDE A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...LEADING TO
A DAILY RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE BIT OF A DRY PUNCH PUSHING IN FROM THE THE
NORTHEAST EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GOES SOUNDER PW
ESTIMATES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 12Z
KTUS SOUNDING SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS...IN THE 1.2 TO 1.3 INCH RANGE.
SURFACE DEWPTS HAVE AGAIN MIXED OUT TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MAKES FOR A LOW SCATTERED MOUNTAIN / ISOLATED VALLEY
THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH ONE OR TWO POTENTIALLY SEVERE. WELL NEED TO
WATCH AS OUTFLOW COMES OFF THE RIM AS WELL.

NICE LITTLE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN SONORA FORMED OVERNIGHT
AND PUSHED OFF INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SLIGHT TO MODERATE
PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL DOWN THE GULF AS WELL (SEEMS TO BE FILLING IN
FAIRLY RAPIDLY TODAY THOUGH). LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE WELL SEE
A SURGE ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE LOWER DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
HINTED AT BY THE MESO-ETA. THIS WOULD BE ON TOP OF THE 10 TO 15KTS
UP TO 4K FT ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE YUMA VWP. WELL FOCUS ON SUNDAY
AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UP TIME FOR STORMS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. ON THE LARGER SCALE...POSITIONING OF THE HIGH CENTER BY
EARLY IN THE WEEK OPENS THE DOOR EVEN FURTHER FOR A DEEPER SOUTHERLY
FLOW. EXPECT HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES AS WE GET INTO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE. M

.TWC...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 12, 11:50 AM MST, 5 hours 30 minutes before

AZZ019-029>035-130700-

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1150 AM MST FRI JUL 12 2002

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL HAVE BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN DESERTS. THE
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER FAR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. WITH NO SPECIFIC DISTURBANCE OR
TRIGGERING MECHANISM IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE
TO RELY ON SOLAR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE MID
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOME DRIER AIR IS NOTED OVER FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO WORK INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL LESSEN THE CHANCES OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH
THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
WITH GREATER THAN ONE-INCH POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA. AS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH NO SPECIFIC
TRIGGERING MECHANISM...THIS SHOULD LESSEN THE CHANCES OF SEVERE
STORMS. THEREFORE...THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TODAY.

THUNDERSTORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 170 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:21 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Thunderstorm Wind, Greenlee

When: July 12, 5:20 PM MST to 5:30 PM MST
Where: Greenlee County, Duncan
Property damage: $40,000
Reported by: TRAINED SPOTTER
Coordinates: 32.717, -109.100

What these are

Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Arizona in 2002 Every state in 2002 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, July 2002

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5307599.