Damaging Winds in Nevada, July 12, 2002

WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 PM PDT FRI JUL 12 2002

DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG THE SIERRA AND WESTERN SLOPES PUSHING
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWEST.  VERY LITTLE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTION SO DEVELOPMENT MAINLY BASED ON OROGRAPHIC AND TSTMS
OUTFLOW TRIGGERS.  BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF DYNAMICS CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINSH TOWARDS SUNSET.  GUSTY WINDS LIKELY THIS EVENING
WITH THIS CONVECTION.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECITON SATURDAY.  THE MODELS DO HAVE A S/W
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA SATRUDAY NIGHT.  THAT
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SO WILL THROW IT IN
DURING THE NIGHT.  THEN THE AVN HAS THE HIGH PUSHING EAST GRADUALLY
ENDING UP IN THE ROCKIES.  A TROF WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ESTABLISHES ALONG THE COAST SO WE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT.  HAVE
PUSHED THE TSTMS EAST AND SHOULD AFTER SUNDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...FOR THE TUE THROUGH FRI PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO LEAN
MORE TOWARD A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IN LINE WITH CONSISTENT AVN RUNS
AND SHIFT TSTM ACTIVITY TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST. ECMWF TRYING TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS AREA SLOWLY E TO THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN TUE AND WED AND MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.  AVN FOR TUES AND WED ALSO CONTS TO BRING DRIER
SW FLOW INTO N AND W PTNS CWA. WILDCARD IS...AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHETHER REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TS
CRISTINA MIGHT BE ENTRAINED INTO AREA FOR MID WEEK. PREVIOUS FCST
KEPT CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES WITH THIS REASONING BUT WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD AVN/MRF TREND OF DRIER FCST MAINLY N AND W. BY THUR AND FRI
THIS MEANS THAT WILL KEEP CHC POPS ONLY IN MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES. JAH

.REV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 800 PM FOR ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES.