Hail in Nebraska, May 28, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
317 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2002

...FORECAST CHALLENGE TO BE CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND INTO EXTENDED PERIOD...

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK TROUGH FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS...EXTENDING JUST WEST OF AN OGA-VTN LINE WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE LINE AND NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY
FLOW TO THE WEST. ANOTHER BOUNDARY SHOWING UP WITH CU FORMING ON IT
FROM NORTHEAST CO TO NEAR OGA AND NORTHEAST TO ONL. UA ANALYSIS AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER OK AND H5 TROUGH
EXENDING FROM MN INTO EASTERN NE. WEAK S/W RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN STATES AND S/W INTO THE PAC NW. ALSO WEAK S/W VORT MAX OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING HELPING TO KICK OF CU FIELD IN SOUTHEAST WY AND
NORTHEAST CO.

COMPARING THIS MORNINGS AND YESTERDAYS SOUNDINGS LITTLE HAS CHANGED.
TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES...DPVA AHEAD OF WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF
WY...WEAK LLVL WAA AND STRONG INSOLATION MAY LEAD TO LATE AFTERNOON
TSRA EXTENDING INTO THIS EVENING. CU DEVELOPING IN BLACK HILLS AND
WESTERN PANHANDLE MAY LEAD TO TS DEVELOPMENT AND A FEW MAY STRAY
INTO WESTERN PORTION OF CWA DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW. SO WILL LEAVE 20
POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING FOR CWA. BEST MOISTURE/INSTABLILITY APPEARS
TO BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA LOOKING AT H85 THETA RIDGE AND
DEWPOINTS SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SVR WX...HOWEVER SBCAPES OF
OVER 1500 J/KG AND NO CAP IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA COULD PROVE ME
WRONG. WEAK WAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF AREA BY MIDNIGHT AND WITH LOSS OF
HEATING TSRA SHOULD BE DONE BY LATE EVENING. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK
THROUGH WED NITE.

ETA/AVN BOTH AGREE ON MOVING STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM H5 SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOUTHERN/WEAKER END OF WAVE TO MOVE
OVER CWA THROUGH WED. DAY WITH BEST FORCING INTO THE DAKOTAS. WEAK
TROF IS REFLECTED ON THE SURFACE AND WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL LEAVE SLGHT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR ALL OF CWA AS
TROUGH PASSAGE IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUN...AND REMOVE POPS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NCENT ZONES.

AS H5 WAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
NORTHEASTERN CONUS WILL ALLOW UPPER RIDGE TO AMPLIFY INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS. THU AND FRI LOOK DRY WITH INCREASING HGHTS AND AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT RIDGE BREAKING DOWN/MOVING EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND AS TROUGH MOVES ONTO WEST COAST. WILL LEAVE CHANCE OF TSRA
IN THROUGH MOST OF EXTND WITH BEST CHANCES FOR MON/TUE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WITH RETREATING HIGH/DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH.
PERSISTANT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH RESULTANT GULF
MOISTURE RETURN FLOW PATTERN AND SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA SLGHT
CHNC/CHANCE SEEMS REASONABLE. ALSO AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED
TROPICAL SYSTEM GETS ABSORBED INTO MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ADD
ADDITONAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO EQUATION. AS FOR TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 SOUTH THROUGH SUN. THEN COOLING INTO
THE 70S FIRST PART OF WEEK AS UPPER HGHTS FALL WITH APPROACHING H5
TROF.

.LBF...NONE.

DP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE, NE
344 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0342 PM    17 S SENECA               NE   0.75 HAIL
05/28/02   THOMAS

0342 PM    4 SE PURDUM               NE   0.75 HAIL
05/28/02   BLAINE

0343 PM    4 NE ANSLEY               NE   0.75 HAIL
05/28/02   CUSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...COR EVENT DATE TO 05/27/02
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE, NE
400 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0810 PM    17 S SENECA               NE   0.75 HAIL
05/27/02   THOMAS

0900 PM    4 SE PURDUM               NE   0.75 HAIL
05/27/02   BLAINE

1035 PM    4 NE ANSLEY               NE   0.75 HAIL
05/27/02   CUSTER