Hail in Nebraska, June 20 to 21, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
137 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2002

...PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT...WARMUP FOR THE WEEKEND THE MAIN FCST
CHALLENGES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY A BIT HECTIC ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH
LINGERING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. APPEARS THAT A FAIRLY DECENT SHORT
WAVE TROF IS MOVING NEWD INTO SC CO AT 18Z WHICH IS SUPPORTED IN
THE ETA WITH SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT. REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
PUSHING INTO ERN CWA WITH LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOCATED FROM NEAR OMA TO S OF EAR TO BTWN HLC AND MCK AS OF 17Z...
BUT BY 18Z HAD MVD THRU IML AND MCK.

KEY TO THE 1ST PERIOD FCST WILL BE HOW FAST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SWRN
NEB CAN RECOVER. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING INTO CUSTER CO ATTM WILL
HAVE SOME SUBSIDENCE LEFT IN THE OGA/LBF AREAS THRU EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS IN FRONTAL MOVEMENT SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT
AREAS FURTHER S MAY WELL SEE ENOUGH SUN TO MAKE THINGS INTERESTING.
WILL WATCH THE MSAS/LAPS SFC MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE TRENDS TO MAKE
FINAL WORDING AJUSTMENT FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT IN THE SW.
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS FURTHER W WILL TRY TO PUSH E INTO ERN
PANHANDLE THIS EVE. AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS PER THE ETA...BEST
LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE IN THE NRN MOST COUNTIES THRU THE NIGHT.
HEIGHT RISES AND NWD PROGRESSION OF FRONT SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION
TO WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS EVENING THO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
NERN CO AND SWRN NEBR AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS SINCE BEST CAPE AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LOCATED THERE...HENCE A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT AND
SVR POTENTIAL. WILL PUT HIGHEST POPS IN NC FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
STORMS...TRENDING LOWER IN BBW AREA...FURTHEST REMOVED FROM LL
FORCING AND BEST THERMODYNAMICS.

FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH WELL INTO SD FOR FRIDAY...LEAVING CWA IN SRLY
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS AND GENERALLY REMOVED FROM BEST LL FORCING. ETA
TRIES TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION IN THE FAR NERN CWA FRI AFTERNOON.
NOT SOLD ON THIS SINCE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE N OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AVN IS SIMILAR TO THE ETA AND WITH POSSIBILITY OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...WILL INCLUDE SMALL POPS IN THE NERN CWA. TEMPS SHOULD
BE WELL INTO THE 90S MOST PLACES.

ETA MOVES COLD FRONT INTO FAR SWRN SD LATE SATURDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE THO AS DO MID LEVEL TEMPS. GOOD DRYLINE DEVELOPS AS A RESULT
OF WRLY WINDS ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF THE SFC LOW IN SWRN SD...
BRINGING DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK FORCING NOTED
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE ERN PANHANDLE LATE IN THE DAY SAT...BUT
ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED IF AT ALL...
LIKELY WILL JUST SEE AC CLUSTERS NEAR THE DRYLINE WITH NO RAINFALL.
SO NO POPS INCLUDED.

BEYOND...WONT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED OTHER THAN TO INCLUDE
DAY 7. GLOBAL MDL TRENDS ARE ACTUALLY DECENT...WITH THE NRN STREAM
REMAINING ACTIVE THRU NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MDL TRIES TO DEVELOP
CONVECTIVE BOMB UNDER UPPER RIDGE TUE/WED...BUT HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE
BUT DOESNT DEVELOP. WILL JUST DOWNPLAY PRECIP MENTION IN OUTER
PERIODS.

.LBF...NONE.

JWS