Hail in Nebraska, June 15, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
245 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

...FORECAST CHALLENGE TO BE POPS...

CURRENT SYNOPSIS ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS BULK OF CWA CAUGHT IN NWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. FIRST WAVE EXITING NERN NM INTO TX PANHANDLE. NEXT WAVE
OVER NCENT WYOMING PICKING UP STEAM AS IT HEADS SOUTH. WAVE FARTHER
WEST OVER SWRN MT SHOULD BE THE WEATHER MAKER TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
WEST. AVN AND ETA SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON PICTURE ALOFT AT
H5...HOWEVER ETA IS APPEARING TO DO A SLIGHTLY BETTER JOB AT HANDLING
SWAVES WITHIN THE NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. FARTHER
OUT...ETA AND AVN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY AFTN. ETA DEVELOPS
PSEUDO CLIPPER SYSTEM OVR NRN PLAINS...DRAGGING CDFNT THROUGH CWA ON
SUNDAY AFTN. THIS FEATURE IS NO WHERE TO BE FOUND IN THE AVN MODEL.
MOISTURE REMAINS THE WILD CARD IN ALL OF THIS AS THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAIN BONE DRY EAST OF A LBF TO VTN LINE THROUGH SAT AFTN. BOTH THE
AVN AND ETA HINTING AT PCPN TOWARD MORNING IN THE WRN CWA. SHOULD BE
AN ELEVATED VIRGA SHOW AS LL IS DRY...HOWEVER ETA FCSTD 30+ KT H85
JET IN THE SW BY SUNRISE MIGHT MAKE THINGS INTERESTING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL MONITOR SITUATION NEAR ISSUANCE FOR MENTION
OF AM TSRAS IN THE WRN COUNTIES. WILL LOOK FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S. NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
LATE AFTN/EVENING AS USUAL CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. WITH ERLY WIND SHIFT TODAY ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH...MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS EVIDENCED BY
INCREASED SB AND ELEVATED CAPES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND FAR SW.
THIS SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR TSRAS AND SHRAS THIS EVENING. GOOD
INSTABILITY NOTED PER H7-H85 LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS SB AND ELEVATED
LIS IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY. HOWEVER...ORIGIN OF TSRAS IS KEY...WITH
EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PANHANDLE...NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CARRY THIS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SWRN CWA ONLY. WILL TAILOR
POPS ACCORDINGLY. LLJET WELL SOUTH OF CWA...SO MCS FORMATION SHOULD
BE IN THIS AREA ACROSS SWRN KS...NW OK...AND TX PANHANDLE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FROPA WILL BE FOCUS OF SHRAS AND TSRAS IN
THE AFTN IN THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR
ISSUE. WILL BE AN EARLY SHOW IN THE CENTRAL CWA AS CAP STRENGTH IS
VERY WEAK. FCST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS HODOGRAPHS ARE INDICATIVE OF
GOOD SHEAR...AND WITH HIGH BASES EXPECTED...WILL BE LOOKING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. BETTER
THREAT OF SEVERE WILL BE IN THE EAST WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOL. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...POST FRONTAL WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
AND NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. BULK OF BEST CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
OVER THE NERN ZONES WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
IN THE SW...FROPA WILL BE NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...RIDGE FLATTENS MONDAY PLACING CWA IN A ZONAL
PATTERN. AS A RESULT...SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDS. UNTIL MOISTURE CAN ESTABLISH ITSELF...WILL
KEEP PCPN CHANCES SLIGHT AT BEST. WILL LEAVE TUESDAY AND WEDS POP
CHANCES ALONE GIVEN ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN. LATEST MRF ESTABLISHES
RIDGING OVER THE SW AFTER FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PERIODS LOOK
GOOD AND WILL LEAVE IN TACT FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT AN UPWARD
MODIFICATION IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY.

.LBF...NONE.

CLB

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-151630-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
540 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COULD FORM.  AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
IS UNLIKELY.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MOISTURE OR THE LACK THEREOF IS THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

MID-JUNE IS THE PEAK SEVERE WEATHER SEASON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  THUS AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALMOST
ALWAYS POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGEST LARGE HAIL WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS.

CDC