Hail in Nebraska, June 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
305 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2002

...FORECAST CHALLENGE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
TUES...

CURRENT SFC SCENARIO AS OF 17Z HAS STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ALONG THE
KS/NEBR BORDER. HAVE UPDATED TEMPS TO REFLECT STATIONARY NATURE OF
THE BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AT LBF...WE WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE MID 90S THIS AFTN WITH ERLY FLOW. MOISTURE HAS SURGED
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS EVIDENCED BY 60+ DPTS ALONG AND N OF THE
BOUNDARY.

.TONIGHT...CAP STRENGTH CONTINUES TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND EVENING. H700 TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM PER
18Z SOUNDING...SO CAP IS STRENGTHENING. CONVECTIVE TEMP THIS AFTN AT
LBF IS 101...SO LIFT WILL HAVE TO COME FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE. WITH
BOUNDARY NOT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TILL EVENING THIS MAY BE TOO
LATE TO BREAK CAP AS IT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. NEXT SW TROF IS
JUST EXITING THE FOUR CORNERS CURRENTLY AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE
CWA TILL MID EVENING. STILL APPEARS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
TSRAS WILL BE OVER THE NRN CWA...AND THIS SHOULD BE A LATE
SHOW...UNLESS CAP CAN BREAK DOWN IN THE SW. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
HINTING AT HIGH LCLS OVER THE NORTH SO THREAT SHOULD BE FROM LARGE
HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. WILL BUMP POPS DOWN TO 50 OVER THE NRN ZONES
PER COORDINATION WITH SPC AND RAP.

.TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SFC LOW EJECTS ENEWD INTO SWRN NEBR
TOMORROW. TRACK OF THIS COULD BE SHIFTED SWD DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR
NOT WE SEE SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW FROM A MCS TONIGHT. H7 TEMPS COOL
ALOFT IN THE NRN ZONES TOMORROW WEAKENING THE CAP. AS H5 WAVE
APPROACHES THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRAS
OVER THE NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH...IF LOW POSITION VERIFIES BY 18Z
TOMORROW...WE SHOULD BE HOT WITH SWRLY WINDS. H85 TEMPS INDICATIVE OF
LOWER TO UPPER 90S TOMORROW IN THE SW...WITH 80S NORTH. COOLING TREND
BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS FROPA IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z.

.MONDAY...CWA SHOULD REMAIN IN COOL PATTERN WITH ABUNDANT CLDS. AVN
AND ETA DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE OUT PERIODS ON EXTENT OF POST
FRONTAL CONVECTION. ETA MODEL MORE BELIEVABLE ON MONDAY WITH
SUSTAINED ERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT...NEXT WAVE TRAVERSES CWA ON LEADING
EDGE OF H5 TROF. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IN MENTION OF POPS IN FCST
ALBEIT LOW.

.TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ONGOING FCST HAS CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE DAY AND
THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK. WILL ADJUST TEMPS DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT
PER NEW AVN RUN AS CLOUDINESS SHOULD HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER DUE TO
SLOWER EXIT OF THE UPPER TROF. CLEARING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS ON
TRACK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE PANHANDLE.
AFTER EXITING TROF ON TUES INTO WEDNESDAY...CWA IN RIDGING ALOFT TIL
LATE FRIDAY WITH LL FLOW FROM THE SW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
INITIALLY...WITH CDFNT POISED TO MOVE IN ON FRIDAY...THIS ONE SHOULD
BE DRY GIVEN LL MOISTURE. LOOKING AT H85 DEW POINTS...MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL SATURDAY...THEN LL FLOW BECOMES SERLY ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RE ESTABLISH. WILL CONTINUE DRY TREND IN FCST FOR DAYS 4
THROUGH 6 WITH PCPN THREAT ON SATURDAY AS NEXT UPPR WAVE/JET STREAK
APPROACHES. ADDTL SUPPORT WILL ARISE FROM SFC FRONT. MEX GUIDANCE
SEEMS A LITTLE COOL GIVEN H85 TEMPS...SO WILL USE THESE AS GUIDANCE.

COORDINATED WITH SPC AND RAP

.LBF...NONE.

CLB