Tornadoes and Hail in Nebraska, July 2, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
152 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2002

...STRENGHENING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REINFORCE HOT AND DRY WX INTO
THIS WEEKEND...

U/A ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE CONUS. UPPER LOWS ARE
PLACED OFF THE COAST OF SRN B.C COAST...SW OF SRN CALIF. TUT LOW
LOCATED OVER SOUTH TX AND A WEAK SECONDARY CIRCULATION OVER ERN KS.
WV IMAGERY DOES NOT REVEAL THE PRESENCE OF ANY DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM
ATTM. WHILE UPPER RIDGE AND HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY WARM OVER
THE REGION WITH PRESENCE OF CAPPING INVERSIONS AT AROUND H7 AND
H5...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE A RESPECTABLE 1.6 INCH BY THIS
EVENING EAST OF BOUNDARY OVER NERN CWFA.

ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY WILL BE INVOF OGA TO BASSETT THIS EVENING...LIMITING
FACTORS CONTINUE TO BE PRESENCE OF CAPPING INVERSIONS AT H7 AND
H5...A STRONG ENOUGH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BREAK THE INVERSIONS
AND VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE H7. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC THIS EVENING
EAST OF ANW AND NORTH OF BUB IN AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE AND 0-6 KM
WIND SHEAR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME MORE
EAST-WEST ORIENTED ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO
EASTERLY (SOUTHEAST IN THE WEST). THIS WILL ACT TO SLOW AFTN HEATING
WITH HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 90S. BOTH THE ETA AND
AVN GENERATE QPFS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM NERN NEBR INTO SN MINN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FAVOR THE ETA WHICH KEEPS QPFS OUT OF MUCH
OF ERN NEBR WEDNESDAY AND WILL GO DRY.

ATTN TURNS TO OUR WEST WED AFTN. ERLY LOW LEVELS WINDS WILL ACT TO
INCREASE PW VALUES TO AROUND AN INCH AS FAR WEST AS EXTREME ERN WY
AND NERN CO. APPROACH OF H7 WAVE WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH STORM MOTION SOUTHEAST AND NOT LIKELY TO DRIFT TOO FAR EAST
INTO CWFA. WILL PLACE SLIGHT CHC FOR FAR WRN TIER OF COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT...BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTH WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER IN THE NW WITH UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 ALL AREAS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY..HEAVILY FAVOR THE ETA FOR A DRY DAY. AVN HANGS THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL NEBR WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY OVER CNTRL AND ERN NEBR AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES . EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO BE INTO NORTH DAKOTA AS FCST BY THE ETA WITH ONLY
BOUNDARY LIKELY TO BE TO OUR NW FROM NEAR CYS TO NORTHEAST OF RAPID
CITY. SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE CWFA.

THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AVN MOVES UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SW OF THE
COAST OF SRN CALIF INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY FRIDAY. AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES INTO UPPER RIDGE...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE A NON FACTOR WITH
ONLY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS IN FORECAST. WITH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS FORECASTING A 600 HIGH TO DEVELOP AT 500 MB OVER CENTRAL U.S.
BY THIS WEEKEND...WILL CONTINUE A DRY EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
ACCORDINGLY IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100.

.LBF...NONE.

KAR