Damaging Wind in Missouri, June 11, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER MUGGY DAY ACROSS THE OZARKS.  SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND
2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE
SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE FORMING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE 700 MB CAP. DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME NOTED ON WATER VAPOR BEING DRAWN UP AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A COLD FRONT HAD STALLED IN
THE NEAR PARALLEL FLOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
FRONT TO SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN A
SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI.  MAY ACTION WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT.  STORMS
WILL EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX THAT WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ON WEDNESDAY...WILL LIKELY SEE ONGOING CONVECTION AS THE COMPLEX
PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND WEAKENS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. SYNOPTIC
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST WHERE STORMS WILL AGAIN
ORGANIZE LATER IN THE DAY.

THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA. EXPECT ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OR PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE
A GREATER POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS...ESPECIALLY IF AIRMASS RECOVERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION BUT EXPECT
THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
WILL TREND RAIN CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.

LOOKS LIKE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL END THE
WEEK.  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION NDFD SITES. ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

FOSTER

MOZ055>058-069>071-083-120400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - TORNADO WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
511 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 411...IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING. THIS TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

BENTON...CAMDEN...DENT...MARIES...MILLER...MORGAN...PHELPS AND
PULASKI.

SOME CITIES IN THIS TORNADO WATCH INCLUDE CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD
WOOD...OSAGE BEACH AND ROLLA.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ACT ON A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE. WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 7000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

BROWNING

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

* HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT...

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND
  ISOLATED TORNADOES.

  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH AND MINOR FLOODING.

* AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING...

  NORTH OF A WARSAW TO SALEM LINE THIS EVENING...AND AREAWIDE AFTER
  MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION OUTLOOK...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
  LIMITED THREAT AREA AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
  THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

* DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
  EVENING AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
  STALL ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATER TONIGHT.
  THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE
  COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
  KANSAS AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE
  TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE STORMS SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING
  TREND AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA.

* EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY...

  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
  AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
  OZARKS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

BROWNING

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF