Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Kansas, June 11 to 12, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

TNGT:
FOCUS IS AGN ON QSTNRY BNDRY AND COPIOUS MSTR.  APPRS THAT CAP WL
ONCE AGN BE OVERCOME LT AFTN/EVE.  DEFINITE SVR WX POTENTIAL...BUT
ALSO CONCERNED ABT HVY RA POTENTIAL. SVR THREAT MAINLY DMGG WNDS.
LARGE HAIL LKLY WITH SUPERCELL STORMS.  ISOLD TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
TO BE MAINLY LANDSPOUT TYPE ON BOUNDARIES GIVEN LARGE CAPES/MARGINAL
SHEAR.  CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW DECENT MVMT...BUT APPRS THAT STORMS
SHUD CONT TO DVLP ALG BNDRY IN DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW.  FORTUNATELY UPR
FLOW DOES NOT APPR TO BE AS DIFFLUENT AS LAST NGT.  WENT WITH HVY RA
IN FCST...OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE WATCH. OF NOTE...ETA KF MASSIVELY
DIFFERENT FROM OPERATIONAL ETA...WITH KF LOOKING A LOT MORE
REALISTIC.

WED-WED NGT:
REALLY TOUGH CALL...WITH A LOT RIDING ON AMT OF CONVECTION TUE NGT.
MODELS GOING IN DIFFENT DIRECTIONS WITH AVN PUSHING MOST WX INTO
OK...WITH ETA REFORMING BNDRY TO THE N.  AGN...AM LEANING TOWARD ETA
KF/AVN COMBO...WHICH PUTS HIER POPS ACRS THE S...SPLY IN THE MORNING
WITH LEFTOVER PCPN.  AGN ELEVATED STORMS PSBL WED AM GIVEN MIDLVL
LAPSE RATES.

THU:
BASICALLY A SHOT IN THE DARK...WITH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE WHERE
FNT/EFFECTIVE SFC BNDRY WL BE.  GOING FCST AS GOOD AS ANY AND WONT
CHG.

FRI-SAT:
SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO AREA WITH COOLER/DRIER WX.  LTL IF ANY CHG
TO GOING FCST.

SAT NGT-MON:
NW UPR FLOW RAISES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON PCPN FCST.  WHILE SFC
FNT SHUD BE WAY S OF AREA.  HOWEVER ECMWF AND TO A LESSOR EXTENT AVN
SUG A WEAK FNT TO BACK DOOR INTO THE AREA.  COORD WITH HPC REVEALED
ECMWF ACTUALLY CRANKS OUT OVER AN INCH QPF ACRS THE AREA ON SUN.
GIVEN THE TENUOUS NATURE OF NW FLOW...MODEL CHGS FM YDA...AND INCRG
ENSEMBLE DIVERGENCE BEYOND SUN...WL MAKE VERY FEW CHGS TO THIS
PERIOD.  GOING TEMPS BASICALLY ON TRACK.

FCSTID = HOWERTON
ICT   71  85  62  80 /  60  60  50  20
HUT   69  84  61  80 /  80  60  40  20
EWK   70  84  62  80 /  80  60  40  20
EQA   71  85  63  80 /  60  60  50  20
WLD   72  87  64  80 /  50  60  50  20
RSL   66  79  58  80 /  70  50  40  10
GBD   66  82  60  80 /  80  60  40  20
SLN   67  82  60  80 /  80  50  40  20
MPR   70  84  62  80 /  80  60  40  20
CFV   72  89  67  80 /  30  50  50  20
CNU   71  85  65  80 /  40  60  40  20
K88   71  85  65  80 /  40  60  40  20

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-112200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1156 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

A COOL FRONT HAS STALLED FROM NEAR DODGE CITY TO RUSSELL TO
CONCORDIA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE MOMENT...A WARM LAYER OF AIR
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 THOUSAND FEET IS PUTTING A LID ON ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 3 PM. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A
HUTCHINSON TO MARION LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND SHEAR PROFILES...GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE A GOOD BET WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A LARGER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. ALTHOUGH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY INITIALLY HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER
SOUTH...THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY NORTH OF A HUTCHINSON TO MARION LINE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

KSZ053-111931-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
215 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

THIS IS A TEST...THIS IS A TEST.

CHANCE

KSZ053-111934-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
219 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

THIS IS A TEST...THIS IS A TEST.

CHANCE

KSZ053-112009-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
254 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

THIS IS A TEST...THIS IS A TEST.

CHANCE