Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, June 11, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

MADE A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.  I ADDED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TODAYS PERIOD.  CONTINUED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHEAST KANSAS INDICATE
THAT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO TOUCH OFF
STORMS THAT COULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY...CURRENT RADAR IMAGES INDICATE A WEAK NORTH/SOUTH
SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR CLINTON THAT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS TO
FIRE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OUR VERY JUICY ATMOSPHERE OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

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320 AM...
MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT A STRONG MCS FIRED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST IN NEBRASKA AND
PUSHED NORTHEAST INTO IOWA.  OUR INTER MOUNTAIN LOW ALONG THE
CANADIAN/U.S. BOARDER CONTINUES TO LIFT EAST NORTHEAST...AS THE EAST
COAST RIDGE LOOKS LIKE ITS BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OUT. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY
SLOWLY AS IT DRAPES FROM MINNESOTA...THROUGH WEST IOWA/EAST
NEBRASKA...AND INTO THE WEST HALF OF KANSAS.  UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FROM THE JET MAX...ON THE LEADING SIDE OF THE INTER MOUNTAIN LOW
ALONG WITH FRONTAL INSTABILITY...PROVIDED THE EXTRA SUPPORT FOR
TONIGHTS MCS/BOW ECHO ACTION TO OUR NORTH. WHILE THE LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT KILLED THE THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WERE BREWING TO OUR WEST IN CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER
TODAY.

MODEL PREFERENCE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE ETA.  I FEEL THAT IT HAS
A BETTER HANDLE ON THE FRONTAL LOCATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ITS PRECIPITATION FIELD APPEARS TO BE WAY OVERDONE FOR
TODAY. THE ETA HAS BEEN TO QUICK TO ERODE THE 700 MB CAP AS OF LATE
WHICH THEN ALLOWS IT TO INDUCE A LOT OF LIFT THAT JUST IS NOT THERE.
SO...I WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE RAIN CHANCES OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY AS WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE TOO HEAVILY CAPPED TO SEE ANY
ACTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT I EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF STATE
TONIGHT.  UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE
OFF IN EAST KANSAS...WILL BE IN PLACE TO HELP PUSH ANY MCS THAT
MIGHT FORM THROUGH MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.  HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE A
REAL POSSIBILITY AS THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN ALONG THE SLOWLY
SAGGING FRONT.  FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR NORTH MISSOURI AND EAST
KANSAS LOOKS TO BE AT 3 INCHES OR HIGHER FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
I WILL LEAVE IT TO THE DAY SHIFT TO LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. THE ETA MODEL TAKES ITS TIME MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
NORTH HALF OF MISSOURI WEDNESDAY.  BY MID AFTERNOON THE FRONT LOOKS
TO BE PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI JUST IN TIME FOR THE MAX
HEATING.  I AM EXPECTING THIS TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THE REST OF THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
TAPERING OFF OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PACKAGE.

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EAX...
KS...NONE
MO...NONE

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111630-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
537 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

* HAZARDS EXPECTED -
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLY REACHING
SEVERE LIMITS...AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION -
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION: AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL SLOWLY PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE STATE BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
TRAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN
TO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SOME OF THE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS OVERNIGHT.  AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGES
SOUTH WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP ALONG
THE FRONT IN CENTRAL MISSOURI AS THE AFTERNOON HEATING JOINS FORCES
WITH THE FRONTAL INSTABILITY TO START FIRING OFF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WILL
WEDNESDAYS STORMS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

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