Damaging Wind in Missouri, July 22, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
151 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2002

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
LAPS CAPES INDICATING 3000-4000 J/KG.  BEST INSTABILITY IS IN THE
EASTERN CWA WHERE DEW POINTS WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...AND REGIONAL
RADAR WAS SHOWING INSTABILITY BASED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING
FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
ONLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT TO SPEAK OF
SO FAR WAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE NOT MADE IT TO CRITERIA YET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY CANCEL ADVISORY AT ZONE ISSUANCE TIME.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THE CWA WITH CAPES ON
THE ORDER OF 3 TO 4 THOUSAND J/KG THIS EVENING.  UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT WITH BEST
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE LOCATED FROM IL INTO THE OH VLY.  BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
CWA...BEFORE INSTABILITY DWINDLES AFTER SUNSET.  WITH HIGH WBZ
VALUES...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WITH DOWNBURST AND STRAIGHT LINE
WIND POTENTIAL.

FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND COOLER AIR PUSHING IN.  FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
OVER THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE SETTING UP
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGIONS.  INHERITED DRY FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT
HAVE UPPED POPS ON THURSDAY FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

MRF HAS NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA NEXT MONDAY AND HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED LOOK
SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

PRELIMINARY GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

.SGF...NONE.

FCSTID = 5
SGF   68  85  64  89 /  60  30  10  10
JLN   69  87  67  92 /  60  30  10  10
UNO   69  85  62  89 /  60  30  10  10
VIH   67  84  63  87 /  60  10  10  10
AIZ   67  84  63  88 /  60  10  10  10

LINDENBERG

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2002

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM CURRENT AIR
MASS...

* HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT...

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES 95 TO 105 DEGREES.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE HIGH WIND.

* AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING...

HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 95 TO 105 THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.  THE HOTTEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF A NEVADA TO SPRINGFIELD TO MOUNTAIN GROVE
LINE AFTER 2 PM.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION OUTLOOK...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF
A NEVADA TO SPRINGFIELD TO MOUNTAIN GROVE LINE.

* DISCUSSION...

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL HOLD ON FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT
WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LINE AND PUSH
THROUGH THE OZARKS REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.  THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

* EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ACROSS THE OZARKS TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA NEXT MONDAY...
PROVIDING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

LINDENBERG