Damaging Wind in Missouri, July 10, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
430 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

FCST PROBS FOR THE MRNG PACKAGE ARE PCPN CHCS OVR NXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND THE TRICKY PROPOSITION OF TEMP FCSTG ASSCTD WITH IT.

TWO ITEMS OF NOTE ON THE WX-MAP ERL THIS MRNG...SFC FNTL BDRY POSND
JUST S OF I-70 CORR AND UPR LOW MOVG SEWD THRU NODAK.  RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS SCT TSTMS OCCURRING NR SFC FNT IN CNTRL/SRN MO ALG WITH AREAS
OF TSTMS OVR IA PRODUCT OF FORCING N OF STNRY FNTL BDRY AND UPR
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AHD OF UPR LO.

AREA OF ONGIONG CONVECTION ACRS IA HDG INTO MORE STABLE AIR AWAY FM
ITS ORIGINATION ZONE N OF STNRY SFC FNT OVR NEB.  C-VECTORS AND MN
MID-LVL FLO WL TEND TO DRIVE THIS AREA FURTHER TO SE...BUT SRN TAIL
HAS FIZZLED OFF PAST FEW HRS.  DOUBTFUL IT WL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
NRN ZONES THIS MRNG.

SFC FNT PROGGED BY MODELS TO MOV INTO EXTRM SERN MO WITH TRAILING
TROF XTNDG NWWD INTO MID-MO RVR VLY.  SHUD BE CONCERN PRIMARILY ACRS
SRN/WRN ZONES TDA AND INTO ERL TNGT.  SFC DWPTS HAVE NOT GONE DOWN
MUCH BHND FNT...WITH RDGS IN THE LOW 70S WDSPRD...AND WITH LITTLE/NO
CAP PROGGED IN VCNTY OF FNT THIS AFTN/EVNG AND VERY UNSTABLE AMS IN
PLACE...HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN COU/JEF/FAM AREAS FOR TDA.

UPR LO WL BE CLOSE ENUF TO NRN/WRN FA BY LATE TDA TO WARRANT
CONSIDERATION FOR AFTN FCST.  THIS FEATURE WL FUNNEL DISTURBANCES
SEWD AND WL INTERSECT MDTLY UNSTABLE AMS WITH FAVORABLE POSN OF
QSTNRY FNT TO SW OF NRN/WRN FA.

UPR LO WL HAVE GRTR IMPACT ON FA BEGINNING TNGT AND CONT THRU THU
NGT WITH CD POOL OF AIR ALFT AND SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING
ARND IT.  AMS MOISTURE THRU COLUMN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WITH PWATS
AOA 1.5.  UPR LO WL BEGIN TO WKN THU NGT/FRI...WITH A H500 TROF
AXIS SETTING UP OVR MO/IL THRU WKND...WHICH CUD MN PROLONGED CHC OF
PCPN...ESP FOR SRN/ERN FA.  FAVORED MORE AGGRESSIVE MAV POPS THRU
FCST PD.

SHUD SEE ROBUST SCT/BKN CU DVLPMT TDA...ESP IN S AND W NR BDRY.
DPNG NELY SFC WND LYR AT LLVLS WL KP MXG HGTS IN CHK TDA...AND
GUIDANCE HAS THIS WELL IN HAND...ESP FWC.

LRG TEMP DIFF EXISTS BTWN MAV AND FWC ON THU TEMPS.  LIKE MAV
DEPICTION OF HIR POPS AND LWR CLDS BUT UPR 60S/LOW 70S FOR MAXES IN
MID JULY UNREALISTIC XCPT IN VERY UNUSUAL SITNS.  WON/T TAKE MUCH OF
A PEAK OF SUN TO SHOOT TEMPS UP...SO WENT FOR COMP INSTEAD.

.STL...NONE
TES