Damaging Wind in Missouri, August 12, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2002

HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL HIGHLIGHT FORECAST.

MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER APPARENT ON SATELLITE AND PROFILERS WAS
PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION WAS
INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS A POTENT SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM
NORTHWEST IOWA TO WESTERN KANSAS.

MODELS SIMILAR WITH EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ETAS
DEPICTION OF THE FRONTAL POSITION AND PRECIPITATION AXIS.

FOR THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE VORTICITY CENTER AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT A WEAK WIND
FIELD WILL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED AS AREA COMES UNDER
INFLUENCE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET...AND STRONG
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A
LINEAR TYPE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.   THE STORM COMPLEX WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.  WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY.  ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE HIGH...I HAVE
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH WEST OF A NEOSHO TO OSCEOLA LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.   IF 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE...LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE LIKELY.

ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH.  CONVECTION WILL BE ON A WEAKENING
TREND DURING THE MORNING BEFORE HEATING OF THE DAY INTENSIFIES THE
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG THE FRONT.  ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE FRONT COMBINED WITH DECENT UPPER JET DYNAMICS...WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.  THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN DURING THE LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY.  THIS ALONG WITH
A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH COULD SPARK SOME
CONVECTION.  SO I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION ICT AND HPC.

ISC GRIDS ARE OUT.

.SGF...FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
NEOSHO TO OSCEOLA.

FOSTER