Damaging Wind in Mississippi, October 29, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
330 AM CST TUE OCT 29 2002

SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COUPLING THIS MORNING WITH A POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RR QUAD 90KT SUBTROPICAL JET. CANT GET
EVERYTHING LINING UP MUCH BETTER THAN THAT. 88D REFLECTING THE
OUTCOME OF SUCH DYNAMICS THIS MORNING. NOT MUCH ROOM FOR
DISSIPATION AS THIS INTENSE AREA OF TS MOVES OVER THE CWA. AS THE
SHORT WAVE IS LIFTED NE THIS MORNING THE AREA OF TS WILL ALSO LIFT
INTO SOUTHERN MISS. THE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY TRAILING WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA. THIS LINE ALSO HAS SOME TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHICH IS THE REASON FOR THE FLOOD
WATCH. THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
MAIN SUPPORT MOVES NE AND LINEAR SHEAR BEGINS TO STRETCH THE
BOUNDARY. SINCE THE FLOW IS ALMOST PARALLEL JUST ABOVE THE BL TO
THE UPP LEVELS THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO GET INTO
THE SE LA COASTAL WATERS AND SHOULD STALL INLAND.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
NUMBERS LOOK GOOD.

***PRELIM NUMBERS***
MCB 78/59/77/54 8400
BTR 79/60/79/55 8400
MSY 80/66/79/63 8530
GPT 78/65/79/58 7630

.NEW...NONE.
LA...FLOOD WATCH LAZ034>040-046>050-056>058.
     TORNADO WATCH LAZ034>040-046>050.
MS...FLOOD WATCH MSZ068>071-077.
     TORNADO WATCH MSZ068>071.
17

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