Hail and Damaging Winds in Mississippi, August 3, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT SAT AUG 3 2002

EVENING CONCERNS...WEAK SHORT WAVE AND COOL POOL OF AIR OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA PUSHING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE EAST BOUNDARY OF
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIR OVER MISSISSIPPI IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT HAS
DRIED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS SHORT WAVE MAY BE JUST THE
FORCING MECHANISM TO FIRE OFF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
EARLY TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE SOME POPS IN FOR EAST AND SOUTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH THE DRIER AIR THAT ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE A MICROBURST. THIS
HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BE AFFECTING
OUR WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ETA MOVES THE
LOW INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THE AVN IS A BIT
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE ETA IS FAMOUS
FOR TURNING THESE LOWS FURTHER TO THE LEFT SO WILL GO WITH MORE OF A
AVN SOLUTION. WILL HAVE INCREASING POPS FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
IN THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 110. WILL LET MID SHIFT PUT HEAT INDICES
WORDING IN THERE FORECAST. RAIN ON MONDAY SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 90S.

BEYOND MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND WE WILL
RETURN TO A PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

JAN  74/94/74/92/72 1103
MEI  72/95/74/91/72 2114

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

02

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
208 PM CDT SAT AUG 03 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
A MAYERSVILLE TO COLUMBUS LINE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED. A COUPLE OF THE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS TO 65
MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS AND  STORM SPOTTERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

...SEASONAL THREATS...
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S...THE HEAT INDEX WILL REMAIN IN THE
100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. PERSONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT SHOULD STAY
IN COOL...WELL VENTILATED AREAS. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND AVOID
LONG PERIODS IN THE SUN.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
306 PM CDT SAT AUG 03 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF MISSISSIPPI... GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM WINONA TO FOREST TO COLUMBIA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN.

A VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM ALABAMA...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT COULD
INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING WHEN THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES.
IT IS BELIEVED AT THIS TIME THAT LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
SUNSET...WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS AND  STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI.

...SEASONAL THREATS...
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S...THE HEAT INDEX WILL REMAIN IN THE
100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. PERSONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT SHOULD STAY
IN COOL...WELL VENTILATED AREAS. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND AVOID
LONG PERIODS IN THE SUN.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.