Hail in Minnesota, June 25, 2002

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
200 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2002

TRYING TO GET PRODUCTS OUT EARLY DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MAIN
CONCERN REMAINS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL YET THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL
SO FOLLOWED AN ETA/AVN BLEND. MOS TEMPS ALSO MATCH UP WELL SO DID
NOT DEVIATE MUCH.

SFC MAP AT 18Z SHOWS THE MAIN SFC LOW YET IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
STILL TWO SFC BOUNDARIES TO WORK WITH. FIRST EXTENDS DOWN FROM THE
LOW INTO NORTHEAST SD AND THE OTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXTENDS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG EACH
BOUNDARY...EVIDENT ON BOTH THE KMBX 88D AND KMVX 88D. EXPECT GOOD
CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL (EXTREMELY MOIST) FLOW AS THESE TWO BOUNDARIES
INTERACT. MSAS SHOWING BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER EAST CENTRAL
ND AND ANOTHER BULLSEYE EAST OF LAKE OF THE WOODS. AIRMASS VERY
UNSTABLE WITH MSAS SHOWING LIS AS LOW AS -10 ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN
500 MB WAVE MOVES INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD BY 06Z WED ALONG WITH MAIN
UPPER JET ENERGY. MODELS ALSO PROGRESS THE MAIN SFC BOUNDARY EAST OF
THE FA BY 06Z...SO WILL GO WITH A CHC OF TSTORMS FOR THE EVENING
PERIOD MOSTLY FROM THE VALLEY AND EAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS ALREADY
SEVERE (SEE SPC DISCUSSIONS) SO WILL ADD A SEVERE MENTION AS WELL.
THESE CELLS HAVE DISPLAYED SOME CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH NO CONFIRMED
REPORTS FROM THE SFC YET. WITH 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING IN AND
STABILIZING AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT PASSAGE...WILL LEAVE REST OF
NIGHT DRY.

500 MB RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED AND
THE REMAINDER OF EARLY PERIODS WITH MAIN CONCERN TEMPS. ONLY TWEAKED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM INHERITED GRIDS AS CONTINUITY REMAINS
VERY GOOD. PERIOD LOOKS QUITE WARM WITH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE. AREA
DOES NOT DRY OUT MUCH WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

EXTENDED...LONG RANGE MODELS SIMILAR IN KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER AREA THROUGH MAJORITY OF EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MRF STILL
HAS A TROF MOVING THROUGH RIDGE ON SAT...BUT UKMET AND ECMWF DONT.
CANADIAN HINTS AT POSSIBILITY...BUT HAS LATER TIMING. AS A RESULT...
WILL KEEP SAT DRY FOR NOW. RIDGE STARTS PULLING E OF AREA ON MON AS
SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN ROCKIES...SO KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. AS FAR AS TEMPS...FMR AND MEX BOTH
CLOSE...SO USED COMPROMISE FOR FORECAST...KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

.FGF...NONE.

GODON/NG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS
259 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0135 PM    5 W HOPE                  ND   TORNADO
06/25/02   STEELE                         BRIEF ROPE

0137 PM    7 NW LUVERNE              ND
06/25/02   GRIGGS                         MULTIPLE FUNNEL CLOUDS 7NW
                                          LUVERNE

0139 PM    5 N LUVERNE               ND   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/25/02   STEELE

0144 PM    3 SW AYR                  ND   1 INCH HAIL
06/25/02   CASS

0150 PM    3 SW AYR                  ND   1 INCH HAIL
06/25/02   CASS

0200 PM    8 W HOPE                  ND   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/25/02   STEELE

0210 PM    5 SW PILLSBURY            ND   1 INCH HAIL
06/25/02   BARNES

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