Hail in Minnesota, July 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
325 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2002

CURRENT FORECAST MAP HAS THE SFC LOW OVER THE NODAK BORDER.  WARM
FRONT HAS ALMOST MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA. INLAND DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER ARE AROUND 70 DEG F.  H7 TEMPS ARE ARE STILL
IN THE 10C VICINITY BUT SOME TCU CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
OVER THE ARROWHEAD (AREA OF H85 THET E CONVERGENCE).  INSTABILITY IS
STILL HIGH...SBCAPES JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE STILL IN THE
4000 J/KG RANGE.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...IF ANYTHING CAN BREAK THE CAP
THEY WILL BE QUITE STRONG.

LOOK FOR THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE WESTERN
ZONES BY 02Z.  BREAKING THE CAP WILL STILL BE THE PROBLEM THIS
EVENING.  LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO FORM IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MOST OF
THE STORMS TO POP NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE BEST THET E
CONVERGENCE IS.  WENT WITH EVENING STORMS IN THE MINNESOTA
ZONES...AND A CHANCE STORMS ALL NIGHT FOR NW WISCONSIN.

BOTH ETA/AVN AGREE IN DRYING OUT THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS TO 0.8 INCHES FROM NEARLY 2 INCHES SEEN
TODAY.  SBCAPES DROP TO ZERO AS WELL.  LOOK FOR A SUNNY AND NOT AS
HUMID DAY.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ETA/AVN BOTH BRING IN SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR THE DLH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WILL NOT INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME.  BELIEVE MOST CLOUDS AND PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL STAY SOUTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY.  EVEN THE CU ALGARITHMS COME UP
DRY FOR THIS DAY.  LIGHT WEST WINDS.

STAYED CLOSE TO AVN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

.DLH...NONE.

KFM