Flood in Michigan, March 10 to 11, 2002

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
340 AM EST SUN MAR 10 2002

THE WIND WILL REMAIN STRONG TODAY, ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP SNOW AND WIND
HEADLINES GOING THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING.

WE WILL BE STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN, ALONG WITH ABOUT 20 MB OF SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH SOME RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND A STRONGER MARCH DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT, WE CAN
EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE THIS MORNING. THE WIND WILL THEN DROP OFF INTO THE 15
TO 25 MPH RANGE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX IN WITH THE STRONG
WINDS, AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING. TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE AROUND -20C
WITH INVERSION/EQ HEIGHTS AROUND 6.5 KFT. THE BEST ACTION IS IN A
COUPLE OF NARROW BANDS THROUGH THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND IN THE I 69
CORRIDOR DOWNWIND OF THE LONGEST FETCH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE IS HELPING ORGANIZE THE I 69 BAND IN SW
LOWER, WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND DECENT INVERSION HEIGHT CARRYING
THE SNOW ALL THE WAY TO PORT HURON. DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL DRIVE INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN TO AROUND
3 KFT BY NOON, BUT THE GRR RADAR SHOWS A FEW MORE HOURS OF STRONG
ACTIVITY. CONSIDERING THIS, WILL KEEP THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS MORNING. LATER ON, AS THE INVERSION LOWERS
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT NORTH OF WEST COMPONENT TO THE WINDS, THE
ORGANIZED BANDS WILL BREAK UP. IN THE MEANTIME, WILL CALL FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES, BUT WITH STRONG BLOWING AND
DRIFTING REDUCING VISIBILITY. EXPECTING JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.

THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN A LOT TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY EVENING
GIVING WAY TO OVERCAST AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS A TOUCH SLOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON FROM
FLINT NORTH AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AROUND DETROIT. PREFER THE
LIGHTER PRECIP IN THE ETA AS MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO
WORK INTO THE SYSTEM.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE ZONAL TOWARD MID WEEK ON THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE NEXT
ONE IS FORECAST BY THE AVN TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. DPROG/DT ON THE AVN SHOWS THAT IT IS CONSISTENT ON
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WITH WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.

.DTX...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TODAY
       MIZ047>049-053>055-060>062
       HIGH WIND ADVISORY TODAY MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083
       STORM WARNING LAKES ST CLAIR AND HURON.

BT