Damaging Wind in Maine, August 13, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
327 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NORTH
TO MAINE WILL BRING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK. IN THIS AIRMASS...EXPECT AREAS OF COASTAL FOG TO FORM AT NIGHT AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
TONIGHTS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTING TO BUILD OFF
THE NC COAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC.
BOARD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER TO CONTINUE. THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE
STATE LATE TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE....STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION COMBINED
WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
AT LEAST 90 IN MOST AREAS TODAY. ONLY RELIEF WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WERE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY CROSSES THE STATE. DENSE FOG WILL AGAIN FORM ALONG THE COASTAL
ZONES EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE BANGOR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG FOR THE REST OF THE STATE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S
TODAY.

BERMUDA RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO MIDWEST
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD...BUT HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND
PRODUCING ANOTHER SUNNY HOT DAY. THE GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SLOWS DOWN CONSIDERABLE AS IT RUNS
UP AGAINST THE BERMUDA RIDGE STILL STRENGTHENING JUST TO OUR EAST. WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE CLOSE
TO 1000 JOULES AS UPPER LEVELS COOL AND BECOME MORE MOIST ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY HELP
GET DEVELOPMENT GOING BUT THE MISSING INGREDIENT APPEARS TO BE A LOW LEVEL
TRIGGER WHICH IS THE FRONT STUCK TO OUR WEST IN CANADA.

BERMUDA RIDGE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW COLD FRONT
TO CROSS THE STATE DURING THURSDAY EVENING. THE ONLY PROBLEM IS THE COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE WEAKEN CONSIDERABLE AND IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND IT
AT THE SURFACE AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY AS THE REMAINS OF THE
FRONT CROSSES THE STATE. THE WEAK FRONT MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF RELIEF
BUT NOT MUCH.

ANOTHER WARM DAY ON FRIDAY BUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT NOT AS HOT AS EARLIER
IN THE WEEK. REAL RELIEF ON THE WAY FOR SATURDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE STATE DURING THE DAY. WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT APPEARS COOLEST AIR WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY WHICH IS BETTER THAN THESE 90S.

COASTAL WATERS...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG
AND HAZE.

.CAR...NONE.

FOSTER