Lightning Strike in New York, August 13, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
135 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2002

MONDAY PROVED TO BE INTERESTING ACROSS THE AREA AS SLOW MOVING TSTMS
PRODUCED SOME COPIOUS RAINFALL AND EVEN A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER.  A
STORM THAT LOCKED ITSELF ALONG A DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN LIVINGSTON
COUNTY REMAINED STATIONARY AND DROPPED ABOUT 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN
ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES.

AS WE HAD ANTICIPATED BASED ON MODEL FIELDS...MONDAYS ACTIVITY SEEM
TO BE FOCUSED BY A WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAT WORKED ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THERE WAS ALSO VERY LITTLE
SHEAR THROUGH 300MB WHICH RESULTED IN MBE (MESO-BETA ELEMENT) VECTORS
THAT DEFINE STORM PROPAGATION TO LESS THAN 3 KTS.

THE 00Z AVN RUN REMAINS CONSISTENT IN ITS INTITIALIZATION OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE OVER NW PA AND THAT ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH WHAT
HAPPENED LATE YESTERDAY.  BY THE WAY...WE CURRENTLY ARE WATCHING A
WEAKENING CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY OVER LAKE ERIE LIKELY ASOCD WITH THAT
WAVE. THAT MAY MAKE ME BREAK OUT ERIE/NIAGARA COUNTIES INTO A
SEPARATE ZONE FOR EARLY MORNING.

I RECOUNTED MONDAYS WEATHER BECAUSE TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR IN MANY
WAYS EXCEPT THAT WE DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE THE ACTIVITY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN JUICY
WITH P-WATER OVER 1.5...SB CAPES OVER 1500 J/KG AND MBE VECTORS LESS
THAN 5 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

MY GUT FEELING FOR TODAY IS THAT WE WILL BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE
TIME...ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PROBABLY LESS THAN 10
PERCENT OF THE AREA WILL SEE ANY RAIN...BUT IF ITS ON YOUR PICNIC
THAT DOES NOT MATTER.  SO I AM GOING TO USE THE TERM ISOLATED IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH THE MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS GIVE US HIGHER POPS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ITS STILL TOUGH TO FIND ANY FEATURE TO HANG OUR HATS ON.
I AM GOING TO STAY WITH PERSISTENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND KEEP
MENTION OF PCPN OUT TONIGHT. AS SW FLOW INCREASES A BIT ON WED I FEEL
THERE MAY BE A BIT BETTER CHANCE TO SEE BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS IN FORECAST.

THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
AS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCHES EVER SO CLOSER TO THE AREA.  THE
AVN STILL BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS OK FOR NOW...WE SHOULD START OUT DRY
BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE LAKES ON SUNDAY AND HOPEFULLY
BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN. TYRING TO TIME THE WAVE THAT FAR OUT IN THIS
PATTERN IS NOT GOING TO BE EASY...SO FOR NOW WE WILL STAY WITH
PERSISTENCE.

??/COMMENTS

.BUF...NONE.

NIZIOL