Damaging Wind in Louisiana, June 26, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
300 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2002

UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ARKLATEX EARLY
THIS MORNING AND MOST MODELS FORECAST VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT THRU THU.
AFTERWARDS THE UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A SHEAR AXIS OVER E TX/W LA FRI.
UPPER TROUGH ALOFT IN NRN STREAM WILL SHEAR EWD LEAVING HEIGHTS
BUILDING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP THE REMNANTS OF THE SHEAR AXIS TO
MOVE SWWD THRU S TX. ALSO THE WRN PORTION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL
BUILD WWD ACROSS THE ERN/CNTRL GULF WHICH WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION. THEREFORE ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU FRI
WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SEASONAL ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE MEANTIME, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES OR MORE. INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH. THUS AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE. PRECIP
WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1.9 INCHES OR GREATER WITH K-VALUES
GREATEN THAN 34 AND THETA-E VALUES AT 850 MB 338 OR HIGHER. LATEST
SATELLITE SOUNDER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE LA/MS COAST S AND SW TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE IS
FEEDING NWD. AVN IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE AND
SHOWS A VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO
SRN LA THIS MORNING. THUS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
EARLY.

MCB 85/70/86/70 7473    BTR 85/72/86/72 8563
MSY 85/75/86/75 8463    GPT 85/75/86/75 6362

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

05

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-271100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED DATE OF ISSUANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
600 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2002

.SYNOPSIS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE
INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IN COMBINATION WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN TODAY
AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF TWO TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.MARINE HAZARDS...WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE TIDAL LAKES OF
PONTCHARTRAIN...MAUREPAS AND BORGNE.

.ACTIONS...
NONE AT THIS TIME.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX
(ALL LOWER CASE).