High Wind in Louisiana, December 12, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
315 PM CST THU DEC 12 2002

INITIAL AREA OF RAIN AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS MOVED INLAND
OVER SE LA AT MID-AFTN. RAIN HAS REACHED THE NEW ORLEANS AREA-BATON
ROUGE AREA. STRONG NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EWD
ACROSS TEXAS TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS PRECEDED THE MAIN AREA DUE TO A VORT LOBE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. STRONG COUPLED JETS AND AN INCREASING STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WITH HELP TO ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A LARGE SHILED OF RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH QPF AMOUNTS
REACHING ONE TO TWO INCHES IN SOME AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE
WEST AT MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ENE
ALONG THE LA COAST TONIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND BY
FRIDAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE FRI NIGHT GIVING WAY TO SUNNY SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT BUT RISK TOO SMALL
AT THE PRESENT TO INCLUDE IN ZONE FORECASTS DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

NEXT SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY IS MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
TOWARDS THE WRN U.S. AND SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL PEEL OFF TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID-WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
TUE INTO THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT LIKELY TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT
WEEK.

MCB 45/52/39/59 +200  BTR 47/55/40/59 9100
MSY 50/59/44/59 +100  GPT 48/59/42/58 +200

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM PASCAGOULA TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
60 NM INCLUDING THE TIDAL LAKES
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

05

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-131300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CST THU DEC 12 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI AS A STRONG UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTNORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT.  IN ADDITION...AS
WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.  OTHERWISE...HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF THE STORM SPOTTER NETWORK... IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE REQUESTED AT A LATER TIME FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.
THE ACTIVATION OF THE STORM SPOTTER NETWORK...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE REQUESTED AT A LATER TIME.