Marine Thunderstorm Wind in Lake Ontario, May 9, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1025 AM EDT THU MAY 9 2002

VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS BRKS IN THE CLDS IN THE WARM SECTOR TO OUR SW
OVR EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA WHICH SHLD MAKE IT INTO PTNS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LKS DURG THE AFTN AND ADD TO THE INSTABILITY
DUE TO THE INCREASED SOLAR HEATING. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME BRIEF BRKS
IN THE CLDS PTNS OF THE IAG FRONTIER BUT THEY WILL PRBLY BE MORE
LIMITED. COLD FRNT MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EAST AND CURRENTLY ALNG
IND/OHIO BORDER SHLD APPROACH WNY IN MID-LT AFTN HRS AND FINGER LKS
TWD EVE.

MESOETA INDICATES QUICK INCREASE IN 850/700 VV FIELDS BY 21Z OVR NW
PA NR ERIE ANDS BY 00Z IT EXTENDS NE ACROSS FINGER LKS INTO EASTERN
LK ONT. THIS GOES ALNG WITH SPC DISCUSSION OF POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE
DEVELPG AHEAD OF COLD FRNT LTR THIS AFTN. MESOETA PROFILE DATA ALSO
DOUBLED THE CAPES FRM ERLIER ETA RUN WITH HIGHEST VALUES NOW OVR 1000
ALNG SOUTHERN TIER AND IN THE 700 TO 850 RANGE OVR THE IAG FRONTIER
AND FINGER LKS REGION. SPC STILL HAS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA IN SLGT
RISK OF SVR THIS AFTN EXCEPT FOR AREAS NORTH OF OSWEGO.

TEMPS ALREADY IN MID 60S TO NR 70 IN THE  FAR WEST AND WITH TEMPS
ALREADY IN LOW TO MID 70S IN THE BRKS TO OUR SW I WILL BUMP UP TEMPS
A BIT MOST AREAS ESPCLY IN THE AREAS THAT SHLD SEE THE MOST SUNNY
BRKS.
ALSO INCREASED WNDS AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER ON PROFILE DATA INDICATES
GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 35-45 RANGE WEST AND JUST A BIT LOWER IN THE
FINGER LKS REGION. ALSO FUNNELING WNDS ALNG BLACK RIVER VALLEY EAST
OF LK ONTARIO CREATING STRNG WNDS AT GTB WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 WITH
GUSTS TO 40 BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ALNG THE VALLEY TILL WNDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY BY ERLY AFTN.

ONLY CHANGE TO SECOND PERIOD IS TO ADD SCT EVE SHWR/TSTM ESTERN PTN
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

WILL RUN ZNS SHORTLY.

.BUF...NONE.

JJP

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