2 marine thunderstorm wind, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 19, 1:29 PM EST, 2 hours 31 minutes earlier.
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 228 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002 A DEEP SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP. THE WATER LOOP ALSO SHOWS A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THESE TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO NORTHERN TEXAS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. ONCE AGAIN...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY EVENING AND DEAMPLIFYING THE TROUGH. THE ETA SOLUTION HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT AVN THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. I WILL THUS BE FOLLOWING THE AVN TIMING ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH BRINGS IT ACROSS SE MICHIGAN FRIDAY EVENING. AREA RADAR DATA IS SHOWING CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SOME MODEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE IS AIDING THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH SURFACE TEMPS HAVING CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...LAPS DATA HAS INDICATED CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2200 TO 2400 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WEAK WAVE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS POISED TO WORK ACROSS SE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. BASED ON COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND PROJECTED MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...I WILL CARRY LIKELY WORDING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SCATTERED NEAR DETROIT. PRECIP LOADING WITH AMPLE MOISTURE MAY ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY WIND GUSTS. I EXPECT SOME MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT AS A 35 TO 40KT NOCTURNAL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION FROM THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL 850MB THETA E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD SPELL MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.8 INCHES OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO PROGGED TO WEAKEN. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO PROGGED TO RESIDE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NONETHELESS...VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND SOME MODEST LIFT SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS PLACED SE MICHIGAN IN A SLIGHT RISK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS MID LEVEL JET OF 50KTS MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...SUGGESTING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS. A LIMITING FACTOR TO ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND PRECIP DURING THE MORNING LIMITING THE INSTABILITY. IF WE ARE ABLE TO REACH GUIDANCE HIGHS OF NEAR 80...WHICH WILL LIKELY HAPPEN IF A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOP...MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE NEAR 1900 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH THE DYNAMIC WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS IS STILL PROGGED TO EXIT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THIS WEEKEND...SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING A WEAK SFC TROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE AVN AND ETA MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING VERY MUCH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...I WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS FOR SUNDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY INTERACT WITH OVER LAKE INSTABILITY TO PUSH SOME SHOWERS WELL INLAND. EXTENDED DISCUSSION...THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING A HUDSON BAY LOW WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN TIER US NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FILTERING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH THE AVN AND ETAXX SOLUTIONS COLDER THAN THE UKMET...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME VARIANCE AMONG AVN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS TO HOW COLD IT WILL GET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL. SO...GIVEN THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE HUDSON BAY LOW NEXT WEEK...I WILL KEEP TEMPS AT TO A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. I WILL NOT HOWEVER SIDE WITH THE VERY COOL MEX NUMBERS GIVEN SOME OF THE WARMER SOLUTIONS. MAY SEE SOME SHORT WAVES AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW NEXT WEEK. TIMING OF THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT THOUGH. THE WARMER SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THESE WAVES MAY BE MORE OF A PROBLEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. SO AT THIS POINT...I WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. .DTX...NONE. CONSIDINE
MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-200900- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 430 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002 DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY. HAZARD... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...WITH HAIL AN INCH OR LARGER POSSIBLE IN A FEW CASES. DISCUSSION... HUMID AIR OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING... HAS LED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AT AROUND 30 MPH. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...WITH HAIL AN INCH OR LARGER POSSIBLE IN A FEW CASES. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR WILL MAKE HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING...AROUND 10 PM. SPOTTER ACTIVATION... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN THE LATEST FORECAST ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE. HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX/ (ALL LOWER CASE) BT
The Detroit radar (KDTX), 103 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:58 UTC.
2 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2002Every state in 2002This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5317666, 5317667.