Hail in Kentucky, May 28, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2002

LITTLE CHANGE. MAIN CONCERN STILL CENTERS AROUND POPS FOR CONVECTION
IN THE STAGNANT REGIME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN WITH
THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MORE STORMS ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON THAN IN
RECENT DAYS...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS AVOIDED OUR AREA. MUCH OF
IT HAS BEEN TO OUR NORTH NEAR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING THIS AREA GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...OTHER CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER THE
FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION...WILL NEED TO CARRY AN EARLY EVENING PERIOD FOR
DIMINISHING STORMS AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS.

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK SIMILAR. ALTHOUGH...PRECIPITATION MAY
BE MORE RESTRICTED OVERALL AND TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY...WITH MODELS INDICATING SLIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL WARMING. THE NGM
POPS DROP TO BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AM
NOT COMFORTABLE WITH THIS...AND WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE
NGM/AVN MOS AND USE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORM EACH OF THE
NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS.

NEXT FRONT STILL SLATED BY AVN FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE TRUE CHANGE IN
AIR MASS ARRIVING IN THE EVENING. PROSPECTS FOR RAIN DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT GREAT...WITH TEMPS ALOFT ON THE AVN NOT SHOWING COOLING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...BEEFED UP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. WITH THE TRUE BOUNDARY APPEARING TO CROSS YET ON
FRIDAY EVENING...WILL CARRY A 20 PERCENT POP INTO THE EVENING.

ONCE THIS COLD FRONT PASSES WE WILL EXPECT DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN NORTH. BUT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITION OF THE RETURNING FRONT ON SUN/MON. IT
MAY BE SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MRF...WITH THE MRF ENSEMBLE
SHOWING AN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH THAT IS A BIT DEEPER/MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE OPERATIONAL MRF. HOWEVER...EVEN THE MRF ENSEMBLE
HAS IT NORTH OF US BY MONDAY NIGHT. BUT EVEN WITH THE FRONT TO OUR
NORTH...A MOIST FLOW PRECLUDES USING A DRY FORECAST. BOTTOM
LINE...WILL USE A SMALL CHANCE POP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW MRF MOS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.JKL...NONE.

HAL