Hail in Kentucky, March 15, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 PM EST FRI MAR 15 2002

CONCERNS FOR THIS FCST WRAP AROUND TIMING OF PCPN TONITE AND CHC OF
SVR.

16Z SFC CHART SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE ERN COAST WITH
LOW PRESS OVER LK HURON. WARM FNT STRETCHES EAST ACROSS THE GT LKS
AND A COLD FNT THRU IN/AR IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF KY. 88D HAS
SHRA AHEAD OF COLD FNT...NOW PROGRESSING THRU CNTRL KY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN NRN IN. ONE POP UP CELL JUST SHOWED UP IN BNA
AREA.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
ERN MVMT OF THE FNT. LOOKS LIKE FNTL PASAGE WILL OCCUR AROUND 12Z
FOR WRN CO AND AROUND 18Z FOR ERN CO. WILL MAINTAIN CAT POPS TONIGHT
ACCROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT AND HAVE BUMPED POPS TO GOOD CHC WEST/LKLY
EAST FOR SAT. WILL GENERALLY KEEP CHC POPS FOR SUN WITH EXCEPTION OF
NWRN CO SAT NITE/SUN MORN.

MON/TUE KEEP CHC POPS AS THERE ARE SEVERAL WAVES TO TRACK NE ALONG
THE FNTL BNDRY FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE NE. TIMING WILL BE
DIFFICULT AND WILL NOT ATTEMP AT THIS TIME. THESE WILL KEEP THE LATE
WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK WITH OFF/ON PDS OF RA.  HEAVIEST RA WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FNT SAT MORN WITH POCKETS OF BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2
POSSIBLE. EXPECT GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE
CWA AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EVERYONE SHOULD SEE SOME PCPN
TONIGHT. SPC HAS BACKED OFF ON SVR THREAT AND I AGREE. TIMING IS
WRONG...BEST MOISTURE IS SOUTH AND BEST LIFT IS NORTH. WE COULD
STILL SEE TSRA BUT FEEL CHCS OF SVR ARE SMALL. WILL STILL ISSUE SPS
WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WITH THESE IDEAS IN MIND...MAINLY FOR LATE
TONIGHT.

IFPS: GFE HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO DELAY PCPN AND HOLD BETTER POPS INTO
SAT. WILL ALSO REMOVE POPS FROM THE LAST THREE DAYS OF EXTENDED AS
RIDGE SEEMS TO HOLD THE PCPN OFF UNTIL LATER ON SAT.

WORK ZONES OUT BEFORE TOO LONG UNDER SDFOZFJKL. PRELIMINARY CCF FOR
COORDINATION PURPOSES.

CCF
LOZ TC 054/057 042/052 050 85433
JKL TC 054/058 043/052 048 86334

.JKL...NONE.

DUSTY