Flash Flood in Kentucky, January 24, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 AM EST THU JAN 24 2002

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC WAVE JUST E OF PAH WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW INTO E TX AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E ALONG THE OH
RIVER TO NEAR CRW AND THEN S AND SW ALONG THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS INTO
EAST TN AND NE GA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO MO.

AS THE FRONT AND SFC WAVE MOVE E WE EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO
ALL OF OUR CWA AFTER 9Z OR NEAR ZONE ISSUANCE TIME AS REGION GETS
INTO RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET.  THAT COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PWS FORECAST TO GET NEAR 1.4 WILL
LEAD TO STRONG UVVS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME THUNDER AS
LIS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW 0 THIS AM. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL 100
POPS TODAY ALL ZONES AND MENTION RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AND THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. AM VERY CONCERNED THAT THE HEALTHY SQUALL LINE
OVER WESTERN KY MAY GET INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE IT
WEAKENS.  WIND PROFILE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
INSTABILITY IS THERE AS WELL.

WILL GO CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING OVER THE W AND LIKELY E AND MENTION
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AS SECONDARY FRONT AND 500 MB TROUGH PASSES
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES UPSLOPE. HIGHS WILL DEFINITELY BE
TRICKY TODAY AS HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE W.
TEMPS BEHIND WARM FRONT ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
WILL PROBABLY WORD WESTERN ZONES WITH EARLY HIGHS AND THEN TEMPS
FALLING PENDING OBS AT ISSUANCE TIME.

GFE/IFPS GRIDS...ADJUSTED POPS UP FOR TONIGHT TO LOW LIKELY OVER THE
EASTERN CWA AND UPPED POPS OVER THE W MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING. WILL
STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE REST OF THE GRIDS EXCEPT
HIGHS FOR TODAY WERE UPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON LATEST OBS
AND ALSO FOR THE TN BORDER COUNTIES ON FRI WHICH WERE UPPED A COUPLE
OF DEGREES AS WELL.

CURRENTLY THE KY AND UPPER CUMBERLAND BASINS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE
HIGH. THE KY RIVER AT HEIDELBERG AND BOONEVILLE IS EXPECTED TO GO A
BIT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ON FRI...BUT ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED
THERE...MAINLY LOW LYING AREAS.

WORK ZONES WILL BE OUT AS SDFOZFJKL BY 415 AM.

PRELIMINARY CCF
LOZ WB 061/032 049/027 058 +4000
JKL WB 059/032 048/031 057 +4000

.JKL...FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 4 PM TODAY.

PELTON