Hail in Kansas, May 6, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
236 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2002

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MAINLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES ALL PERIODS.

COMPLEX ATMOSPHERIC SITUATION THIS MORNING AND IT WILL ONLY GET MORE
SO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHERN BRANCH HAD SUNK FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL TIER STATES FROM
RECENT DAYS WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SLOWLY LOSING ITS PUNCH BUT STILL
HOLDING FROM BAJA TO OHIO VALLEY. STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT 500MB WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH
IMPULSES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA VIA RAOBS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
ARCTIC AIR HAD SUNK SOUTH TO THE US/CAN BORDER AT 850MB WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO CENTRAL WYOMING. MOISTURE AT 850MB
HAD PUSHED EAST OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS WEAK TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
17Z SURFACE MAP HAD DRYLINE FROM NEAR HLC TO NEAR P28 THEN SOUTHWEST
WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT RSL BEHIND THE SURFACE BRINGING SHALLOW
MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD PUSHED
WEST THROUGH NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WELL AT ALL AND WILL NEED TO ADJUST THE LOW LEVEL
FIELD WITH THIS IN MIND. WILL STAY CLOSEST TO THE MESOETA FOR THE
MOST PART.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE EAST IS LIKELY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH ANY OF THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EXIT TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING, LATEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE MAP SHOWING FALLS TO THE
WEST AND EXPECT SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. AS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA ENTERS WESTERN KANSAS
AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE WESTWARD SLIDING DRYLINE MAY BE ABLE TO FIRE A
FEW MORE STORMS AS FAR WEST AS DDC LATER TONIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW,
ISENTROPIC LIFT, AND PLENTY OF SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES BRINGS MORE CAUSE FOR CONCERN. THINK LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW ENOUGH BELOW THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION FOR SOME FOG, BARRING
ANY MIXING FROM THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GRADIENT LOWS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
EAST BASED IN INCREASING MOISTURE.

RAPID CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE OVER EASTERN WYOMING TUESDAY AS THE
NORTHERN WAVE SLIDES EAST. MOISTURE SHOULD AGAIN BE SHALLOW ENOUGH
TO MIX THE DRYLINE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE THREAT FOR A
FEW AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES PERSISTS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE WARM DESPITE BACKED FLOW IN THE
EAST AND NORTH AND WONT CHANGE MUCH FROM GOING NUMBERS.

EXPECT NORTHERN STREAM DYNAMICS TO KEEP THE DRYLINE FROM SLIDING
BACK TOO FAR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO KEEP A SMALL POP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN THE EAST. AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE ENTERS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY, EXPECT THE FRONT TO SINK SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. FRONTAL SPEED HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT WITH
POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT FROM OUTFLOW VIA NEBRASKA THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A JET STREAK, AROUND 150W/40N THIS MORNING FROM
WATER VAPOR LOOP, ENTERING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN THE AFTERNOON
CAUSING PRESSURES TO DROP OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE AVN MAY
HAVE THE BEST SPEED ON THE FRONT BUT A FAST WARMUP IN THE MORNING
SHOULD STILL PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER MOST ZONES WITH LOWER
90S SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE BACKED UP IN NORTHERN KANSAS AND THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SHOULD HELP KICK OFF SOME STORMS ALONG THE FRONT.

DAYS 3-7...

THE DIAGNOSTICS SHOW A CONTINUED MOIST PHASE OF THE MJO WITH A HUGE
CLUSTER OF TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN WHILE GLOBAL
AVERAGE ANGULAR MOMENTUM OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WESTERLIES
REMAINS AT LOW EBB. THIS ARGUES FOR THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE SOLUTIONS
PRESENTED BY THE ECMWF, UKMET AND MRF ENSEMBLE MEANS IN CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY AND SWINGING IT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL GO
WITH THIS FORECAST SOLUTION IN AGREEMENT WITH HPC FOR THE LATER
PERIODS OF THIS FORECAST. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR THE CURRENT UPPER
WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE WARM FRONT RETURNS TO THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WAVE THEN PUSHES A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   60  90  59  85 /  20  20  20  20
GCK   56  88  57  80 /   0   0   0  30
EHA   52  87  57  86 /   0   0   0  10
LBL   56  88  58  89 /   0   0   0  10
HYS   62  88  59  77 /  20  20  20  30
P28   67  90  62  92 /  20  20  20  10

.DDC...NONE.

21/08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY, KS
448 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2002

DELAYED REPORTS FROM 5 MAY 2002 EVENT

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0405 PM    UTICA                     KS   1.50 INCH HAIL
05/05/02   NESS                           REPORTED BY CO-OP OBSERVER

0455 PM    6 N BROWNELL              KS   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/02   TREGO                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0500 PM    4 N BROWNELL              KS   .75 INCH HAIL
05/05/02   NESS                           REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0542 PM    12 NNE CIMARRON           KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/05/02   GRAY                           REPORTED BY PUBLIC

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