Flooding in Indiana, May 6 to 23, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 AM EST MON MAY 6 2002

TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEMS. SEVERE WX IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP THIS ONLY IN A SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY MAINLY THIS EVENING
AND TNGT. SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING CHART SHOWS A LARGE COMPLEX OF
TSTMS WAS SPREADING EAST ACROSS NE MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THIS SEEMS TO CORRELATE PRETTY WELL WITH THE MESOETA WHICH
TAKES THE BULK OF THIS ACROSS OUR CWA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTN. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE AROUND 1.7 AND BEST UVV OCCURS. 3 HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND EVEN THOUGH AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD PRODUCE THAT AMOUNT...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH THREAT
YET TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURRING AGAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WE WILL PROBABLY
BE GOING WITH FLOOD WATCHES BEFORE THIS IS OVER.

BOTH THE MESO-ETA AND AVN SHOWS A LULL IN THE PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASING AGAIN LATE TNGT AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.  MAIN DIFFERENCE IS MESO-ETA KEEPS HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS SRN INDIANA AND THE OHIO VLY WHILE AVN HAS IT
FARTHER NORTH. MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN WITH
REPEATED DISTURBANCES UNTIL CD FNT MOVS THRU EARLY THU.
MAV TEMPS GENLY PREFERRED FIRST 4 PERIODS WITH CLOUDS AND OCNL
PRECIP.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE AVN NOW HAS CD FNT A LITTLE SLOWER SO WILL ADD
A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS IN ALL BUT LAF AND OKK ZONES. MRF THEN
KEEPS US DRY UNTIL SAT NGT.

IND...NONE.
HENDRICKSON

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-061400-

CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
731 AM EST MON MAY 6 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
MORNING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES.