Hail in Kansas, May 27 to 28, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
150 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

...PRECIP CHANCES/LOCATION MAIN CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL I PROBABLY SIDED WITH THE NGM...WHICH SEEMED TO BE THE BEST
COMPROMISE OF THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

EXPECT CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH H500 SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST.  THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY CREATED BY
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30% NORTH TO 50% SOUTH.

THIS SHOULD MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE ANTICIPATED UPPER LOW BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH MOST OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MOISTURE SHOULD AGAIN FILTER
NORTH ON TUESDAY...BUT DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER FEATURE...
EXPECT THAT WE WILL BE IN FOR MORE SHOWERS AND LESS THUNDER.

IN FACT...AFTER TOMORROW...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP UNLESS THE UPPER SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH ENOUGH TO
ALLOW A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO SET OFF SOME ACTIVITY (SIMILAR TO
THE AVN DEPICTION AT 12Z WED).

WILL TAPER PRECIP TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE DRY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW SHOULD SLIDE ENOUGH SOUTH TO
CREATE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  BECAUSE THE LOCATION OF THE
FEATURE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WILL ONLY INCLUDE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  THIS IS IN LINE WITH HPC INPUT.

ROGERS

.TOP...NONE