Hail in Kansas, May 24, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES TODAY.

07Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO MOVING EASTWARD.

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH REGARD TO SURFACE FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH AS WELL AS WITH MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ONGOING TO OUR
SOUTH. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRACK OF UPPER
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WELL TODAY. WILL GO WITH MESOETA FOR FIRST
36 HOURS AND ETA FOR REST OF PERIODS OUT THROUGH DAY 3.

TODAY GOOD LIFT AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALONG WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. WILL GO CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE MAINLY MID 40S TO AROUND 50. EXPECT
NO SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SOLID OVERCAST SKIES.

BY TONIGHT MODELS PROG THE UPPER LOW TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WILL TAKE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH IT. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT FOR RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS AGAIN COOL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR. SHOULD SEE LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL. UPPER WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST. WILL GO CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 70S MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S.

FOR SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S MOST AREAS.

FOR MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT DYNAMICS WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.
LOOKS LIKE ZONAL FLOW WITH MORE RIDGING AND MORE WARMER TEMPS MAINLY
INTO THE 80S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT.

.GLD...NONE.

LAMMERS