Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 2, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1258 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPS BEHIND FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NITE.

WATER VAPOR/UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE SLOWLY
BREAKING DOWN ACRS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS TROF OVER WESTERN CONUS
SHIFTS EAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH SFC TROF/DRYLINE ACRS OUR CENTRAL CWA AND A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BASED ON WATER VAPOR TRENDS AND UPPER
AIR DATA FEEL ETA HAS INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH POSITION/STRENGTH
OF WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...FEEL ETA IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
CAA OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA BASED ON MORNING RAOB DATA...ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONT AND WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT-MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE FLATTENS AS STRONG UPPER LVL
TROF APPROACHES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. TONIGHT...WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH DRYLINE FEATURE WILL PERSIST ACRS
OUR EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...FEEL WITH LIMITED MID LVL MOISTURE AND
VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT CAP WILL HOLD AND ONLY ISOLATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING UPON SFC DWPTS...WINDS...
AND POSITION OF SFC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...FEEL WESTERN LOCATION
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND EASTERN CWA NEAR 70. MONDAY...SFC COLD
FRONT STALLS ALONG OUR SOUTHERN CWA AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS
ACRS MOST OF CWA. BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED VORT MAX AND JET ENERGY
APPROACHES WESTERN BY 21Z AND SPREADS OVER REST OF CWA MONDAY NITE.
I WILL PLACE SCATTERED POPS WEST TO ISOLATED EAST. TEMPS MONDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER AND HOW MUCH CAA
DEVELOPS BEHIND FRONT. I WILL MONITOR UPSTREAM OBS THIS AFTERNOON TO
GET A BETTER HANDLE ON TEMP FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NITE-TUESDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE/JET ENERGY MOVES ACRS CWA
AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIP WILL DEVELOP. FEEL WITH STRONG 850-
700MB 2-D FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LVL CAA...SFC CONVERGENCE
WITH FRONT...AND LOW LVL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASE
MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF MCS ACRS CWA.
SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NITE
WITH LIS NEAR -8...TTS AT 60...K-INDEX NEAR 45...AND CAPE VALUES OF
3000 J/KG. THE MAIN SVR WX POTENTIAL WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND.
TUESDAY...SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF APPROACHES FA. I WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BASED ON ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROF AND
SOME LIMITED MID LVL LIFT. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH
CLOUDS. 850MB TEMPS AND THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST AS UPPER LVL
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SW. I WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND
MENTION TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

EXTENDED...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS FA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND ADVECTS WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN
THE LOW 20S FEEL HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S/90S. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FA LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR TRW. SUNDAY...TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY/MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS AND
HGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

.GLD...NONE.

TABER