Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 2, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
228 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2002

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEARLY ALL PERIODS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO FLATTEN THIS MORNING WITH UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN. SOME POCKETS OF 500MB MOISTURE
CONTINUED TO RIDE THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS. MID LEVELS STILL QUITE WARM WITH 15C 700MB TEMPS COMMON
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WARM POOL AT 850MB WAS EVER FARTHER NORTH THAN
YESTERDAY MORNING PER LBF AND OAX SOUNDINGS BUT NORTHERN PLAINS
TEMPS WERE 5-8C COOLER. SURFACE FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ETA AND AVN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NGM REVEALING ITS TOO FAR NORTH
BIAS ONCE AGAIN AND WILL GENERALLY LEAN IN THE ETAS DIRECTION FOR
THIS PACKAGE.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY
SIMILAR TIMING TO YESTERDAYS OCCURRENCE. WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT, HARD
TO RULE OUT A FEW VERY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT. ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE GROUND, BUT WILL NEED TO
MENTION SOMETHING IN THE ZONES FOR THE DANGER OF DOWNBURSTS AND
LIGHTNING. DOWNSLOPE 850MB WINDS PICK UP NICELY AND LOW LEVELS
SHOULD AGAIN STAY QUITE WARM. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
LOOK GOOD.

FRONT SHOULD SINK INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. APPEARS THAT LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION WAS TOO FAR
NORTH TO GIVE ANY DECENT SOUTHERLY PUSH TO THE FRONT AND THE SAME
LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT TOO. MODELS LIKELY UNDERDONE WITH AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND ETA STILL HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 30C. EXPECT
HIGHS AROUND THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NOT QUITE
TO 105 WITH MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. RECORDS IN THIS AREA
ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN AGAIN. LIKE SPCS IDEA OF STORMS FIRING OVER
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHERE MOISTURE IS
POOLED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING EAST. WILL GO WITH A
SMALL POP IN THE WESTERN ZONES FOR THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF
THESE STORMS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO NEAR THE DRYLINE.

MODELS CONSISTENT WITH STORM COVERAGE EXPANDING TOWARD MCS STATUS
MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS DECENT MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT.
LAST NIGHTS STORMS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO
THE COOL SIDE OF THE 12C 700MB ISOTHERM AND THIS CONTOUR IS PROGGED
TO CROSS BISECT THE ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GRADIENT POPS FROM
HIGHEST NORTH TO LOWEST SOUTH WITH THIS IN MIND.

MCS CREATED COOL POOL SHOULD SHOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE ZONES BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE. BITS OF ENERGY LIKELY TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH THE
UPPER TROF TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES
NEAREST THE BOUNDARY BUT STILL CHANCE POPS NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE OVERNIGHT STORMS, FRONTAL
POSITION, AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION AND INSOLATION. WILL KEEP TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.

DAYS 3-7...

IN THE DIAGNOSTICS LITTLE CHANGE IS SEEN FROM YESTERDAY WITH A
CONTINUED DRY PHASE OF THE MJO IN PLACE AND RAPIDLY FALLING ANGULAR
MOMENTUM IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ANOMALIES. THE LONG WAVE
HEMISPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WAVE 5 WITH
WESTERLIES EXPANDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR THROUGH THE VERY EARLY
PART OF THIS FORECAST. ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE AVN ARE NOW TRENDING
TOWARD THE SOLUTION PROPOSED BY THE ECMWF SEVERAL DAYS AGO IN
CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICO FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY THUS KEEPING THE POLAR FRONT FARTHER NORTH IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. THIS SOLUTION WILL BE ACCEPTED FOR THE
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE NEXT COLD SURGE FOR THE HIGH PLAINS ALL MODELS AGREE ON
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AGAIN IN THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME
AFTER A STRONG WARM UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   69 101  62  76 /   0  10   40  40
GCK   70  95  59  74 /  10  20   50  30
EHA   68 102  61  75 /  10  20   30  40
LBL   69 102  62  76 /  10  20   30  40
HYS   72  91  57  73 /   0   0   50  30
P28   69  99  67  82 /   0   0   30  40

.DDC...NONE.

21/JOHNSON