Winter Storm in Kansas, December 26, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
325 PM CST THU DEC 26 2002

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TIMING ENDING OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THIS
EVENING...THEN HOW EXTENSIVE FOG WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF
SURFACE TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL KS. LONGER TERM
CONCERNS ARE HOW WARM TO GO FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THEN PRECIP
CHANCES FOR MONDAY.

SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS ATTM HAS SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES THROUGH CENTRAL KS AND NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN
SECTIONS. WILL CARRY OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES INTO EVENING FOR
ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...SHOULD END BY AROUND 04Z AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES ON EAST OF STATE BY 06Z. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
LIGHT..AND CONFINED MAINLY TO ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF KS TURNPIKE.
AS THE SNOW ENDS AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT...WILL HAVE TO THEN
CONTEND WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF CWA. AVN WOULD INDICATE
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR A MHK-EMP LINE BY 12Z BUT ETA LAGGING A LITTLE
FARTHER BEHIND. THUS WILL GO WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER ALL
BUT NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DUE TO
CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN MOS INDICATING...
BELIEVE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY UP ABOVE GUIDANCE...AT LEAST OVER
EASTERN HALF OF CWA. NORTH CENTRAL ZONES LIKELY CLEARING OUT LATE IN
NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES BY AND SO MOS GUIDANCE THERE LOOKS REASONABLE.

FOR FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS TAKE HOLD SO FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE/BE
PUSHED EAST OUT OF CWA BY LATE MORNING...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE 7 DAY
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...BRINGING LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND WARMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WILL GO WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS CWA FOR BOTH DAYS.
ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER ON
SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE MORE WIND AND POSSIBLY MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS
WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FOR BEING AS WARM AS THEY COULD BE.

ON MONDAY...AN INTENSE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES
WILL DRAG A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS. CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT LOOKING LESS ALL THE TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CHANCE IT COULD BRING A LIGHT RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW MIX AS IT MOVES
ACROSS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...PUTTING AN
END TO THE WARMER READINGS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGER RANGE MODELS TO PUT ANYTHING IN YET.
MRF WOULD INDICATE SOME CHANCE FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT OTHER MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF...ARE MUCH
SLOWER IN BRINGING NEXT SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL PLAINS.

.TOP...NONE

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KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-270400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
430 PM CST THU DEC 26 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
SNOW...MOSTLY LIGHT...MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS AT EARLY EVENING...WILL END BY LATE EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION THIS
EVENING AS SOME HIGHWAYS...AND ESPECIALLY ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND
BRIDGES...MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. AS THE SNOW ENDS...AREAS
OF DENSE FOG ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THE DENSE FOG MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING SOME CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT
SNOW.  AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ARE
STILL IN QUESTION.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL
BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AS THE STORM APPROACHES...AND ITS
EXPECTED MOVEMENT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

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