Blizzard in Alaska, December 26, 2002

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
230 PM AST WED DEC 25 2002

SHORT RANGE MODELS SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 60 HRS.
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BETWEEN THE AVN AND ECMF ON THE
VERY STRONG LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRI. PREFER THE AVN AS
IT IS MORE INTERNALLY CONSISTENT AND CONSISTENT WITH THE NOGAPS ON
THIS FEATURE. ALSO SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SO RAPIDLY IT MAKES SENSE
TO MOVE IT SLOWER AND LEAN IT TOWARDS THE COLD AIR PER THE AVN.

THE STRONG JET ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AT LEAST RESULTING IN A SLOWLY
CHANGING PATTERN. A TROUGH ALOFT FROM PABI-CYOC WILL MOVE TO
PAIN-PAFA-CYOC BY 3AM THU...PAMH-PABT-PARC BY 3PM THU AND THEN
SLOWLY DISSIPATE. LIGHT SNOW NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH WILL DROP
1-3 INCHES OF 30:1 SNOW THROUGH THU. SOME CLEARING AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.

THE LOW ALOFT NEAR PANC WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THU
NIGHT...AND THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW BANDS OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO FILTER OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH THU NIGHT.

A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THU...AND MOVE TO PAPO-PAHO 4PM FRI...
AND TO PAWI-PABI-PAYA 4PM SAT. FLURRIES AND CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE TROUGH WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE WEST COAST. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER (-20S AND -30S)
WILL DEVELOP IN THE CLEAR AREAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER CHUKOTKA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN FRI. NORTH
WINDS 30KT OVER THE COAST FROM PAPO-PATC WILL WEAKEN FRI AS WELL.

THE DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING ON FRI WILL REMAIN IN THE
FAR WESTERN BERING AND SHUNTS MOST OF ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS WILL INCREASE EAST WINDS ZONES 213 AND 214 FRI AND
SAT...BUT SNOW AND POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH SAT.

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SCA AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 14..9B..10B

JB DEC 02