Hail in Iowa, September 24, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
233 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2002

SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING WARM THINGS UP ACROSS CWA WITH LOW 70S OVER
THE WESTERN CWA AND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S EASTERN CWA. SHOULD SEE A
LITTLE INCREASED WARMING OVER THE EAST AS THE WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
CLEAR. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS INCOMING WEATHER MAKERS...MAIN WAVE
OVER ALBERTA AND ANOTHER NICE WAVE DROPPING INTO WASHINGTON.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD
TO TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP VERY MILD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 50. THE
NORTHWEST CWA WILL SEE COLDEST TEMPS WHERE MID 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS FRONT AND POSSIBLE PRECIP MOVE THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR
LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WEST WITH AXIS OF INSTABILITY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FRONT MUCH QUICKER ON TODAYS RUN THAN YESTERDAY. MID
SHIFT BACKED HIGHS OFF ALREADY AND WILL CONTINUE GOING HIGHS. GOOD
FORCING AND GOOD MOISTURE ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE FRONT IS SLOWEST TO
GET TO.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BOTH MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO
EJECT ACROSS NEBRASKA SPREADING MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS SOUTHEAST AND ENDING NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A PRETTY CHILLY DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND COOL
LOW LEVEL TEMPS.

IN THE LATTER PERIODS...WARMING TREND STILL ON THE WAY BUT MODELS
NOW SUGGESTING A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WITH ALL OF
THE MOISTURE BEING USED UP OUT EAST...BELIEVE ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS
WOULD BE LIGHT. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED POPS YET BUT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO WATCH.

.FSD...NONE

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