Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, November 10, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE LIKELY TODAY.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD END EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT MORE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT TRAILED SOUTH THROUGH MISSOURI. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INDIANA...KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DIMINISHING ALONG THE INDIANA AND ILLINOIS BORDER. SKIES WERE CLOUDY
OVER THE AREA...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF ILLINOIS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...AND SOME CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES PAST. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN NEAR 60 F INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOME SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
LIFTED INDEXES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO -2 C TO -4 C AND CAPES
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. WHILE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
DECREASE A BIT THIS MORNING...A STRONG UPPER JET WILL APPROACH.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
AND VETERANS DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL RESULT...BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD KEEP ANY LIFT MINIMAL. NO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FORECAST.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD THROUGH VETERANS DAY. MET CONTINUES
A WARM BIAS.

.IND...NONE.

DS

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
603 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
MEET WARM...MOIST AIR OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY...AND A FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DS