Flooding in Indiana, March 25 to 31, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
250 PM EST SUN MAR 24 2002

SPLIT UPPR FLOW XPCTD DURG THIS FCST PD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WVS TO
AFFECT THE AREA RIPPLING THRU THE SRN STREAM. THE STRONGEST LOOKS TO
ARRIVE ON TUES. AT THE SFC...FRONTAL SYS CURRENTLY SAGGING SWD THRU
THE CWA IS XPCTD TO PULL UP STATIONARY ALONG THE OH RVR AS A SFC WV
MOVES ALONG THE FNT ON MON. STRONGER SFC WV XPCTD TO MOV NEWD THRU
THE TN VLY TOWARDS WV ON TUES. FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON PCPN TYPE.

IN THE NR TERM...SOME LT PCPN OCCURING OVR THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH GOING ON. PCPN SHOULD BREAK OUT ACRS CWA
THIS EVEN AS 850MB FRONTAL DVLPMNT TAKES PLACE OVR THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AIDED BY A 45KT LO LVL JET. SOME HVY AMOUNTS
OF PCPN PSBL OVR THE CENTRAL/SRN ZONES TONIGHT WITH THIS SETUP.
SHALLOW COLD AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND FNT WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY FCST
WITH PCPN TYPE. BASED ON LO LVL THICKNESSES...A CHANGEOVER TO A
WINTRY MIX LOOKS LIKELY OVR THE NRN ZONES BEGINNING IN THE FAR NW
AROUND 03Z-05Z. WL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR WINTER WX CONDS IN AREAS
ROUGHLY NW OF TERRE HAUTE-MUNCIE LN THRU MONDAY MORNING.

PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH DURG MON MORN AS LIFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
NEXT WV SHOULD MOV INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT/TUES. 850MB FNT STILL
LINGERS OVR THE SRN ZONES DURG THIS PD...SO WOULD THINK PCPN SHIELD
FM THIS NEXT SYS WL BE QUITE FAR BACK INTO THE COLD AIR. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SIG WINTER WX MON NIGHT/TUES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SE HALF OF
CWA IF COLD AIR COMES IN FAST ENOUGH.

LOOKING AT LO LVL TEMP PTNS FM THE MODELS...WL GO A FEW DEGS COOLER
THAN NGM MOS ON THE HIGHS MON AND THE LOWS MON NIGHT. REMAINDER OF
PDS APPEAR REASONABLE.

.IND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THRU MONDAY MORN NW OF A
       TERRE HAUTE-MUNCIE LN.
JAS